Trade invoicing in major currencies in the 1970s-1990s: Lessons for renminbi internationalization
Trade invoicing in major currencies in the 1970s-1990s: Lessons for renminbi internationalization
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jjie.2016.10.005
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发表时间：
2016-12-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Kawai, Masahiro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ito, Hiro;Kawai, Masahiro
在本文中，我们主要关注美元、日元和德国马克（DM）在20世纪70年代至90年代的经验，调查一种主要货币在贸易发票中的使用量。并试图为我国人民币国际化提供借鉴。我们关于三种主要货币在出口计价中所占份额的数据表明，美元毫无疑问是一种全球计价货币，德国马克是欧洲最重要的区域货币，而日元从来就不是一种全球或区域货币。德国马克发票是由欧洲国家与德国的贸易关系推动的。相比之下，尽管亚洲-大洋洲国家与日本有着密切的贸易关系，但日元并没有被广泛用于贸易发票。贸易计价中主要货币份额决定因素的回归分析（还包括英镑、法国法郎、意大利里拉、瑞士法郎（Swiss franc），1970年1998年期间显示，一种主要货币的发票份额往往受到其他经济体与主要货币国家的贸易联系程度的积极影响，并受到其贸易联系程度的消极影响。金融发展或开放。此外，主要货币在贸易发票中的份额受到其他经济体在其隐含货币篮子中指定的主要货币权重以及这些经济体与主要货币区国家的贸易份额的影响。属于美元区的经济体倾向于更多地以美元（或DM）开具贸易发票，而较少地以DM（或美元）开具发票。这些因素对以日圆作为贸易结算货币的影响不大。欧洲国家主要属于德国马克区，倾向于使用德国马克作为贸易发票，而亚洲-大洋洲国家主要属于美元区，导致美元的使用程度很高。我们还发现，当主要货币国家在国际贸易中占有很大份额、人均收入水平较高、金融市场发达和开放时，它们往往会用本国货币进行贸易结算。对中国来说，人均收入水平低、金融开放程度有限以及亚洲美元区国家的存在，对中国推动人民币成为主要贸易计价货币的雄心构成了挑战。(C)2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
In this paper, we investigate how much a major currency is used for trade invoicing by focusing primarily on the experiences of the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Deutsche mark (DM) in the 1970s through the 1990s. We then attempt to draw lessons for China's renminbi (RMB) internationalization. Our data on the shares of the three major currencies in export invoicing show that the dollar was unequivocally a global invoicing currency, and that the DM was the most important regional currency in Europe while the yen was never a global or a regional currency. DM invoicing was driven by European countries' trade ties with Germany. In contrast, the yen was not widely used for trade invoicing by Asia-Oceania countries despite the latter's strong trade ties with Japan. Our regression analysis on the determinants of the major currency share in trade invoicing (also including UK pound sterling, the French franc, the Italian lira, and the Swiss franc) in the 1970-1998 period shows that the invoicing share of a major currency tended to be positively affected by the degree of other economies' trade ties with the major currency country and negatively affected by the degree of their financial development or openness. Also, the major currency share in trade invoicing was affected by both other economies' assigned weights of the major currency in their implicit currency baskets and these economies' trade shares with major-currency zone countries. Economies belonging to the U.S. dollar (or DM) zone tended to invoice their trade more in the dollar (or DM) and less in the DM (or dollar). The use of yen for trade invoicing was not much affected by these factors. European countries largely belonged to the DM zone and tended to use the DM for trade invoicing, whereas Asia-Oceania countries belonged mainly to the U.S. dollar zone, leading to a high degree of dollar use. We also find that major currency countries tended to invoice their trade in their own currencies when they had a large presence in international trade, high levels of per capita income, and financial markets that were developed and open. For China, its low level of per capita income, limited financial openness, and the presence of U.S. dollar zone countries in Asia stand as a challenge to the nation's ambition to promote the RMB as a major trade-invoicing currency. (C) 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.