Trends in Thyroid Cancer Incidence and Mortality in the United States, 1974-2013.

Trends in Thyroid Cancer Incidence and Mortality in the United States, 1974-2013.
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DOI:
10.1001/jama.2017.2719
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发表时间:
2017-04-04
期刊:
JAMA
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
Kitahara CM
Kitahara CM
中科院分区:
其他
文献类型:
--
作者:
Lim H;Devesa SS;Sosa JA;Check D;Kitahara CM

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在过去的40年里,美国的甲状腺癌发病率增加了两倍多,这主要是由乳头状甲状腺癌的增加推动的。目前尚不清楚乳头状甲状腺癌发病率的上升是否与甲状腺癌死亡趋势有关。根据诊断时的肿瘤特征比较甲状腺癌发病率和死亡率的趋势。使用监测、流行病学和最终结果-9癌症登记计划的数据来评估甲状腺癌发病率和基于发病率的死亡率的趋势。肿瘤特征。使用对数线性回归计算1974-2013年间确诊病例的年龄调整后甲状腺癌发病率和基于发病率的死亡率(按组织类型和监测、流行病学和最终结果阶段划分)的年度变化百分比。在1974-2013年间诊断为甲状腺癌的77,276例患者(平均确诊年龄48[标准差=16]岁;58,213[75%]女性)中,乳头状甲状腺癌是最常见的组织学类型(64,625例),1994-2013年间有2,371例死于甲状腺癌。在1974-2013年间,甲状腺癌发病率平均每年增加3.6%(95%可信区间3.2-3.9%)(从1974-77年的每10万人年4.56例增加到2010-13年的每10万人年14.42例),主要是由于甲状腺乳头状癌的增加(年变化百分比=4.4%,95%可信区间4.0-4.7%)。甲状腺乳头状癌的发病率在确诊时的所有阶段都有所增加(局限型每年4.6%,区域性每年4.3%,远处每年2.4%,未知型每年1.8%)。在1994-2013年期间,以发病率为基础的死亡率总体上升了1.1%(95%可信区间为0.6-1.6%)(从1994-1997年的每10万人年0.40例增加到2010-13年的每10万人年0.46例),远处乳头状甲状腺癌的死亡率每年上升2.9%(95%可信区间为1.1-4.7%)。在1974-2013年间被诊断为甲状腺癌的美国患者中,甲状腺癌的总体发病率每年增长3%,其中晚期乳头状甲状腺癌的发病率和甲状腺癌死亡率都有所上升。这些发现与美国甲状腺癌发病率的真实增加是一致的。
Thyroid cancer incidence has more than tripled in the United States over the last four decades, driven largely by increases in papillary thyroid cancer. It is unclear whether the rising incidence of papillary thyroid cancer has been related to thyroid cancer mortality trends. To compare trends in thyroid cancer incidence and mortality by tumor characteristics at diagnosis. Trends in thyroid cancer incidence and incidence-based mortality rates were evaluated using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-9 cancer registry program. Tumor characteristics. Log-linear regression was used to calculate annual percent changes in age-adjusted thyroid cancer incidence and incidence-based mortality rates by histologic type and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results stage for cases diagnosed during 1974–2013. Among 77,276 patients (mean age at diagnosis, 48 [standard deviation=16] years; 58,213 [75%] women) diagnosed with thyroid cancer from 1974–2013, papillary thyroid cancer was the most common histologic type (64,625 cases), and 2,371 deaths from thyroid cancer occurred during 1994–2013. Thyroid cancer incidence increased, on average, 3.6% per year (95% confidence interval 3.2–3.9%) during 1974–2013 (from 4.56 per 100,000 person-years in 1974–77 to 14.42 per 100,000 person-years in 2010–13), primarily driven by increases in papillary thyroid cancer (annual percent change=4.4%, 95% confidence interval 4.0–4.7%). Papillary thyroid cancer incidence increased for all stages at diagnosis (4.6% per year for localized, 4.3% per year for regional, 2.4% per year for distant, 1.8% per year for unknown). During 1994–2013, incidence-based mortality increased 1.1% per year (95% confidence interval 0.6–1.6%) (from 0.40 per 100,000 person-years in 1994–97 to 0.46 per 100,000 person-years in 2010–13) overall and 2.9% per year (95% confidence interval 1.1–4.7%) for distant papillary thyroid cancer. Among patients in the United States diagnosed with thyroid cancer from 1974–2013, the overall incidence of thyroid cancer increased 3% annually, with increases in the incidence rate and thyroid cancer mortality rate for advanced-stage papillary thyroid cancer. These findings are consistent with a true increase in the occurrence of thyroid cancer in the United States.
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