Agent-Based Residential Water Use Behavior Simulation and Policy Implications: A Case-Study in Beijing City
Agent-Based Residential Water Use Behavior Simulation and Policy Implications: A Case-Study in Beijing City
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DOI：
10.1007/s11269-009-9433-2
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发表时间：
2009-12-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Wang, Hao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chu, Junying;Wang, Can;Wang, Hao
居民用水是城市用水需求的主要组成部分，在城市供水中的重要性日益增加。考虑到居民用水系统的复杂性，提出了一种基于Agent的社会模拟方法--居民用水模型（RWUM），以捕捉居民用水行为特征。通过将总的水需求分解为最终用途，该模型可以评估消费者对水的不同反应，同时考虑到节水技术的市场渗透率、监管政策、经济发展以及社会意识和偏好等因素。同时，创新性地将不确定性分析技术应用于该模型中，进行参数标定和模型鲁棒性检验。以北京市为例，该模型可为水资源管理部门评估不同的用水政策提供参考，也可为未来基础设施发展规划提供节水潜力评估。
Residential water use constitutes a major part of urban water demand, and has be gaining importance in the urban water supply. Considering the complexity of residential water use system, an agent-based social simulation, i.e. the Residential Water Use Model (RWUM), is developed in this paper to capture the behavioral characteristics of residential water usage. By disaggregating total water demands down to constituent end-uses, this model can evaluate heterogeneous consumer responses on water, taking into account the factors of market penetration of water-saving technologies, regulatory policies, economic development, as well as social consciousness and preferences. Also, uncertainty analysis technique is innovatively applied in this agent-based model for parameter calibration and model robust testing. According to the case study in Beijing, this model can provide insights to water management agency in evaluating different water usage polices, as well as estimations for potential water saving for future infrastructure development planning.