The future of emissions trading
The future of emissions trading
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DOI：
10.1002/wcc.293
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发表时间：
2014-09
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Jonas O. Meckling
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jonas O. Meckling
在过去15年中，私营和公共行为者在不同的地理范围和不同的财政范围建立了碳市场。碳市场早期的历史显示了一个好坏参半的记录：该工具在地球仪广泛传播，而现有的碳市场表现相当缓慢，尽管轶事证据表明对气候决策产生了积极的副作用。展望未来，三个关键驱动力可能会塑造排放交易的未来：（1）对气候行动的政治需求的来源和可持续性，特别是碳市场，（2）碳市场运作的治理，包括官僚能力和监管捕获问题，以及（3）市场全球化的模式，其中包括碳价格可比性问题，市场联动和拓展。取决于这些驱动力和断层线如何发挥作用，可能会出现许多情况，从强大的嵌入式和有效的碳市场到它们的崩溃。任何一种情景的轨迹都可以用临界点来描述，而临界点很可能会逐渐出现。WIREs Clim Change 2014，5：569-576. doi：10.1002/wcc.293
Over the past 15 years, carbon markets have been set up by private and public actors at various geographic scales and with varying financial scope. The history of the early stage of carbon markets reveals a mixed record: the instrument diffused widely across the globe, while existing carbon markets performed rather slow, though anecdotal evidence suggests positive side effects on climate policymaking. Going forward, three key driving forces are likely to shape the future of emissions trading: (1) the source and sustainability of political demand for climate action in general and carbon markets in particular, (2) the governance of operating carbon markets including questions of bureaucratic capacity and regulatory capture, and (3) the pattern of market globalization, which encompasses issues of carbon price comparability, market linkage, and expansion. Depending on how these driving forces and fault lines play out, a number of scenarios are possible, ranging from strongly embedded and effective carbon markets to their collapse. The trajectory to any one of these scenarios could be characterized by tipping points, which are likely to come about incrementally. WIREs Clim Change 2014, 5:569–576. doi: 10.1002/wcc.293