Regional flood frequency analysis at the global scale
Regional flood frequency analysis at the global scale
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DOI：
10.1002/2014wr015814
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发表时间：
2015-01-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Bates, Paul
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Smith, Andrew;Sampson, Christopher;Bates, Paul
近年来，资料贫乏地区的洪水特性研究受到了广泛的关注。在这种情况下，我们提出的区域洪水频率分析（RFFA）的结果进行了使用全球数据库的流量数据。一个混合聚类方法与洪水指数方法结合使用，提供一个区域化的流量估计与全球覆盖范围。实施的程序具有不同的复杂性，结果表明，流域面积和平均年降雨量解释大部分的洪水频率的变化，分裂样本验证程序显示，中位数误差估计的100年一遇的洪水约为56%。然而，也发现了更大的误差，气候区域之间的性能不同，指数洪水的估计是不确定性的主要来源。此外，RFFA程序被用来提供不同气候和集水区的洪水统计特征的见解。
The characterization of flood behavior in data poor regions has been receiving considerable attention in recent years. In this context, we present the results of regional flood frequency analyses (RFFA) conducted using a global database of discharge data. A hybrid-clustering approach is used in conjunction with a flood-index methodology to provide a regionalized discharge estimates with global coverage. The procedures are implemented with varying complexity, with results indicating that catchment area and average annual rainfall explain the bulk of variability in flood frequency; a split-sample validation procedure revealed median errors in the estimation of the 100 year flood to be around 56%. However, far larger errors were also found, with performance varying between climate regions and estimation of the index-flood found to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Moreover, the RFFA procedure is utilized to provide insights on the statistical characteristics of floods across different climates and catchments.