Influence of Flow Velocity on Tsunami Loss Estimation
Influence of Flow Velocity on Tsunami Loss Estimation
复制标题
流速对海啸损失估算的影响
DOI：
10.3390/geosciences7040114
复制
发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
K. Goda
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jie Song;R. Risi;K. Goda
淹没深度通常被用作海啸脆弱性分析中的强度度量。然而，淹没深度不能作为海啸对结构物影响的唯一表征，特别是当结构物破坏是由主要由流速决定的水动力和碎片冲击力引起时。为了在海啸风险评估中反映淹没深度和流速的影响，提出了一种同时考虑淹没深度和流速的海啸损失估算方法（即，二元强度测度）在海啸灾害评估中的应用。为了考虑广泛的可能的海啸淹没的情况下，基于蒙特卡洛的海啸模拟使用随机地震滑移分布来自频谱合成方法和概率标度关系的震源参数。以日本宫城县的仙台市（平原海岸）和女川市（里亚海岸）为例，从经济损失总量及其在不同尺度上的空间分布来评估随机海啸损失。结果表明，海啸损失预测是高度敏感的建模分辨率和列入流速的建筑物位于距离大海不到1公里的宫城县仙台和女川。
Inundation depth is commonly used as an intensity measure in tsunami fragility analysis. However, inundation depth cannot be taken as the sole representation of tsunami impact on structures, especially when structural damage is caused by hydrodynamic and debris impact forces that are mainly determined by flow velocity. To reflect the influence of flow velocity in addition to inundation depth in tsunami risk assessment, a tsunami loss estimation method that adopts both inundation depth and flow velocity (i.e., bivariate intensity measures) in evaluating tsunami damage is developed. To consider a wide range of possible tsunami inundation scenarios, Monte Carlo-based tsunami simulations are performed using stochastic earthquake slip distributions derived from a spectral synthesis method and probabilistic scaling relationships of earthquake source parameters. By focusing on Sendai (plain coast) and Onagawa (ria coast) in the Miyagi Prefecture of Japan in a case study, the stochastic tsunami loss is evaluated by total economic loss and its spatial distribution at different scales. The results indicate that tsunami loss prediction is highly sensitive to modelling resolution and inclusion of flow velocity for buildings located less than 1 km from the sea for Sendai and Onagawa of Miyagi Prefecture.