Valuing Customer Portfolios with Endogenous Mass and Direct Marketing Interventions Using a Stochastic Dynamic Programming Decomposition
Valuing Customer Portfolios with Endogenous Mass and Direct Marketing Interventions Using a Stochastic Dynamic Programming Decomposition
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使用随机动态规划分解通过内生质量和直接营销干预来评估客户组合
DOI：
10.1287/mksc.2014.0848
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
G. Yildirim
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mercedes Esteban;Jose M. Vidal;G. Yildirim
客户关系管理在营销预算中的分配在使用历史数据中的个人客户终身价值估计时具有潜在的误导性。有计划的营销干预将改变不同客户的购买行为，因此基于历史的决策将是次优的。为了应对这种内在的内生性，我们通过同时考虑针对每个客户的大规模干预和直接营销干预来建立营销组合的最优分配模型。这是一个很大的随机动态问题，通常，由于“维度诅咒”，在计算上是相当棘手的。我们给出了一个算法来得出企业应该如何分配其营销资源的最优营销策略以及这些决策的预期现值，从而最大化企业的长期盈利能力。这使公司能够评估客户/细分市场，并帮助公司瞄准那些在营销资源配置最佳的情况下实现长期盈利最大化的客户。我们将所提出的方法应用于厨房电器制造商的环境中。研究结果确定了最有效的营销策略和内生的顾客价值。正是在这种背景下，我们还动态地识别最有利可图的客户以及营销活动对每个客户的短期和长期影响。
The customer relationship management allocation in marketing budgets is potentially misleading when it uses individual customer lifetime value estimations from historical data. Planned marketing interventions would change the purchasing behavior of different customers, and history-based decisions would thus be suboptimal. To cope with this inherent endogeneity, we model the optimal allocation of the marketing mix by accounting simultaneously for mass interventions and direct marketing interventions for each customer. This is a large stochastic dynamic problem that, in general, is computationally rather intractable as a result of the "curse of dimensionality." We present an algorithm to derive the optimal marketing policies how the firm should allocate its marketing resources and the expected present value of those decisions, which maximize the long-term profitability of firms. This allows the firm to value customers/segments and helps the firm to target those that maximize long-term profitability given the optimal marketing resources allocation. We apply the proposed approach in the context of a kitchen appliance manufacturer. The results identify the most effective marketing policies and the endogenous customer values. It is in this context that we also dynamically identify the most profitable customer and the short-and long-term effects of marketing activities on each customer.
用于密度估计的内核数据压缩
DOI：
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
Atsuyuki;Kogure;Masahiko;Sagae
通讯作者：
Sagae