Prediction and analysis of long‐term variability of temperature and salinity in the Irish Sea
Prediction and analysis of long‐term variability of temperature and salinity in the Irish Sea
复制标题
爱尔兰海温度和盐度长期变化的预测和分析
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Holt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Young;J. Holt
[1]利用自由运行的高分辨率局部区域模式，研究了1960-1999年40年期间爱尔兰海温度和盐度的变化。该模型的技能，以代表观测到的温度和盐度的变化进行评估，使用电导率-温度-深度调查数据（3397个配置文件）和一个长时间序列的测量Cypris站（西南部的马恩岛）。这清楚地表明，该模型可以再现观测到的季节性和长期温度周期，平均误差和RMS误差分别为-0.01 ℃和0.78 ℃。特别明显的是在塞浦路斯站和整个模式域的长期变暖趋势。模型对盐度的估计不太准确，通常过于咸（平均误差和RMS误差分别为0.79和0.98实际盐度单位）。误差可能来自边界条件和强迫（河流和地面）。然而，虽然绝对值没有得到特别好的代表，但该模型再现了在Cypris站观察到的盐度变化的许多趋势，这表明爱尔兰海的主要物理过程（时间尺度长达3年）得到了很好的代表。该模型也被用来调查温度分层的变化。虽然分层被限制在大约相同的地理区域，在每年的模拟，有显着的变化，在时间的开始和崩溃的分层和在高峰表面床温差。总之，这些结果表明，有限的边界条件下的局部区域模型可能是足够准确的气候调查的一些（当地被迫）参数。引用：Young，E. F.、和j.t. Holt（2007年），爱尔兰海温度和盐度长期变化的预测和分析，J. Geophys。结果：112，C01008，doi：10.1029/2005JC 003386。
[1] The variability of temperature and salinity in the Irish Sea over the 40 year period 1960–1999 is investigated using a free-running fine-resolution local area model. The skill of the model to represent observed temperature and salinity variability is assessed using conductivity-temperature-depth survey data (3397 profiles) and a long time series of measurements from Cypris station (southwest of Isle of Man). This clearly demonstrates that the model can reproduce the observed seasonal and longer-term cycles in temperature, with mean and RMS errors of � 0.01C and 0.78C. Particularly apparent is the long-term warming trend at Cypris station and throughout the model domain. Model estimates of salinity are less accurate and are generally too saline (mean and RMS errors are 0.79 and 0.98 practical salinity units). Inaccuracies are likely to arise from boundary conditions and forcing (riverine and surface). However, while absolute values are not particularly well represented, the model reproduces many of the trends in the salinity variability observed at Cypris station, suggesting that the dominant physical processes in the Irish Sea, with timescales up to � 3 years, are well represented. The model is also used to investigate the variability in temperature stratification. While stratification is confined to approximately the same geographical area in each year of the simulation, there is significant variability in the timing of the onset and breakdown of stratification and in the peak surface to bed temperature difference. Together, these results suggest that a local area model with limited boundary conditions may be sufficiently accurate for climatic investigation of some (locally forced) parameters. Citation: Young, E. F., and J. T. Holt (2007), Prediction and analysis of long-term variability of temperature and salinity in the Irish Sea, J. Geophys. Res., 112, C01008, doi:10.1029/2005JC003386.