Prediction of methane production from dairy and beef cattle
Prediction of methane production from dairy and beef cattle
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DOI：
10.3168/jds.2006-675
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发表时间：
2007-07-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
France, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ellis, J. L.;Kebreab, E.;France, J.
甲烷（CH 4）是京都议定书规定要减排的主要温室气体之一。因此，最近动物科学研究的重点是开发或改进现有的甲烷预测模型，以评估减少甲烷总排放量的缓解战略。收集了83个牛肉和89个奶制品数据集，并利用这些数据集利用饮食变量建立了甲烷产生的统计模型。在建立预测CH 4排放的模型时考虑了干物质摄入量、代谢能摄入量、中性洗涤纤维、酸性洗涤纤维、醚提取物、木质素和饲料比例等因素。还评价了与研究相关的现有模型。对于牛肉数据库，方程CH 4（MJ/d）= 2.94（+/- 1.16）+ 0.059（+/- 0.0201）x代谢能摄入量（MJ/d）+ 1.44（+/- 0.331）x酸性洗涤剂纤维（kg/d）- 4.16（+/- 1.93）x木质素（kg/d）导致最低的均方根预测误差（RMSPE）值（14.4%），其中88%是随机误差。对于乳制品数据库，方程CH 4（MJ/d）= 8.56（+/- 2.63）+ 0.14（+/- 0.056）x饲料（%）导致最低的RMSPE值（20.6%）和57%的随机来源误差。一个基于MJ的方程在乳制品数据库中也表现良好：CH 4（MJ/d）= 3.23（+/- 1.12）+ 0.81（+/- 0.086）x MJ（kg/d），RMSPE为25.6%，随机来源的误差为91%。当乳制品和牛肉数据库相结合时，方程CH 4（MJ/d）= 3.27（+/- 0.79）+ 0.74（+/- 0.074）x MJ（kg/d）导致最低的RMSPE值（28.2%）和83%的随机来源的误差。评价的9个现存方程中有2个充分预测了CH 4产量。然而，基于更常见的确定值的新模型显示出对现有方程的预测有所改善。
Methane (CH4) is one of the major greenhouse gases being targeted for reduction by the Kyoto protocol. The focus of recent research in animal science has thus been to develop or improve existing CH4 prediction models to evaluate mitigation strategies to reduce overall CH4 emissions. Eighty-three beef and 89 dairy data sets were collected and used to develop statistical models of CH4 production using dietary variables. Dry matter intake (DMI), metabolizable energy intake, neutral detergent fiber, acid detergent fiber, ether extract, lignin, and forage proportion were considered in the development of models to predict CH4 emissions. Extant models relevant to the study were also evaluated. For the beef database, the equation CH4 (MJ/d) = 2.94 (+/- 1.16) + 0.059 (+/- 0.0201) x metabolizable energy intake (MJ/d) + 1.44 (+/- 0.331) x acid detergent fiber (kg/d) - 4.16 (+/- 1.93) x lignin (kg/d) resulted in the lowest root mean square prediction error (RMSPE) value (14.4%), 88% of which was random error. For the dairy database, the equation CH4 (MJ/d) = 8.56 (+/- 2.63) + 0.14 (+/- 0.056) x forage (%) resulted in the lowest RMSPE value (20.6%) and 57% of error from random sources. An equation based on DMI also performed well for the dairy database: CH4 (MJ/d) = 3.23 (+/- 1.12) + 0.81 (+/- 0.086) x DMI (kg/d), with a RMSPE of 25.6% and 91% of error from random sources. When the dairy and beef databases were combined, the equation CH4 (MJ/d) = 3.27 (+/- 0.79) + 0.74 (+/- 0.074) x DMI (kg/d) resulted in the lowest RMSPE value (28.2%) and 83% of error from random sources. Two of the 9 extant equations evaluated predicted CH4 production adequately. However, the new models based on more commonly determined values showed an improvement in predictions over extant equations.