The Hamburg Tornado (7 June 2016) from the perspective of low-cost high-resolution radar data and weather forecast model
The Hamburg Tornado (7 June 2016) from the perspective of low-cost high-resolution radar data and weather forecast model
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DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.04.009
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发表时间：
2018-10
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
P. Hoffmann;Claire Merker;K. Lengfeld;F. Ament
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Hoffmann;Claire Merker;K. Lengfeld;F. Ament
2016年6月7日，一场龙卷风袭击了德国汉堡东北郊区。估计其强度为藤田风级上限F1，持续时间短，持续时间约13分钟，路径长度约1.3公里。我们证明，这样一个小尺度的极端事件可以观察到和预测准确的低成本雷达和低计算成本的大气模式，分别从一个低成本的单极化X波段雷达覆盖汉堡市区的60米的空间和30秒的时间分辨率的观测分析，他们捕捉龙卷风的发展以及路径的能力。与国家C波段雷达网相比，X波段雷达能够捕捉到龙卷风的钩状回波以及降雨率的圆形图案，由于其在空间和时间上的高分辨率，我们使用计算效率高的共形立方大气模式（CCAM）对龙卷风事件进行了高分辨率预报。以测试在几个小时内预测龙卷风的能力。一个三步降尺度的方法是用来获得1公里的空间分辨率与NCEP分析的初始条件。计算出的恶劣天气指数清楚地表明有可能发生龙卷风。CCAM不能明确地解决小尺度龙卷风的功能，但模式模拟强对流单体只有几公里，从雷达观测到的龙卷风雷暴。
A tornado hit the northeastern suburbs of Hamburg, Germany, on 7 June 2016. It had an estimated strength of upper end F1 on the Fujita scale and was short-lived with an approximate duration of only 13 min and a path length of just about 1.3 km. We demonstrate that such a small-scale, extreme event can be observed and forecasted accurately by a low-cost radar and by an atmospheric model with low computational costs, respectively.Observations from a low-cost single polarized X-band radar covering the urban area of Hamburg with 60 m spatial and 30 s temporal resolution are analyzed with respect to their ability to capture the development as well as the track of the tornado. In contrast to the national C-band radar network, the X-band radar is capable of capturing the hook echo of the tornado as well as the circular pattern in rain rates, because of its higher resolution in space and time.High-resolution forecasts of the tornado event are conducted with the computational efficient Conformal Cubic Atmosphere Model (CCAM) in order to test the capability of predicting the tornado with a lead time of a few hours. A three step downscaling method is used to obtain a spatial resolution of 1 km with initial conditions taken from the NCEP analysis. Calculated severe weather indices clearly indicate a potential for a tornado. CCAM cannot explicitly resolve small scale tornadic features but the model simulates a strong convective cell only a few kilometers apart from the tornadic thunderstorm observed by the radar.