DOMINANT SONORAN DESERT PLANT SPECIES HAVE DIVERGENT PHENOLOGICAL RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
DOMINANT SONORAN DESERT PLANT SPECIES HAVE DIVERGENT PHENOLOGICAL RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
复制标题
索诺兰沙漠主要植物物种对气候变化有不同的物候反应
DOI：
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Munson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Luke J. Zachmann;J. Wiens;K. Franklin;S. Crausbay;Vincent A. Landau;S. Munson
摘要美国西南部是全球气候变化的热点地区。模型预测，到21世纪末，气温将继续上升，同时水文循环将发生重大变化。在索诺兰沙漠，数量有限的研究记录了气候变化对本地植物物种物候的影响。了解气候变化对物候学影响的大部分物候学工作建立在近三十年前进行的研究基础上，以确定本地关键索诺兰沙漠木本物种的开花触发因素和发育要求。在这里，我们扩展了驱动因素，并使用独特的36年观测数据集探索了6个物种的近期物候趋势。我们使用统计模型来确定气候的哪些方面影响开花的概率，以及开花时间如何应对气候变化。我们超越了传统的物候模型，将不同的水分可用性指标与温度、天气和气候结合在一起，包括每日、每周、季节和前期条件。我们的研究结果提供了证据的趋势提前开花（每十年1-4天的顺序）的六个物种分析的五个，并没有一个物种的趋势。我们评估的物种有对比的物候响应气候的不同方面，这表明在物候和不同的植物群落开花模式在未来的气候变化的潜力的个体化的变化。了解开花物候及其气候触发因素的最新变化对于预测植物物种是否能够吸引传粉者，繁殖以及在持续气候变化下在社区内持续存在非常重要。
Abstract The southwestern U.S. is a global hotspot of climate change. Models project that temperatures will continue to rise through the end of the 21st century, accompanied by significant changes to the hydrological cycle. Within the Sonoran Desert, a limited number of studies have documented climate change impacts on the phenology of native plant species. Much of this phenological work to understand climate change impacts to phenology builds on research conducted nearly three decades ago to define flowering triggers and developmental requirements for native keystone Sonoran Desert woody species. Here we expand on the drivers and explore recent phenological trends for six species using a unique 36-year observational data set. We use statistical models to determine which aspects of climate influence the probability of flowering, and how flowering time may respond to climate change. We move beyond traditional models of phenology by incorporating different metrics of moisture availability in addition to temperature, weather, and climate at several time scales, including daily, weekly, seasonal, and antecedent conditions. Our results provide evidence of a trend towards earlier flowering (on the order of 1–4 days per decade) for five of the six species analyzed, and no trend for one species. The species we evaluated had contrasting phenological responses to different aspects of climate, suggesting individualistic changes in phenology and the potential of divergent plant community flowering patterns under future climate change. Understanding recent changes in flowering phenology and their climatic triggers is important to anticipating whether plant species can attract pollinators, reproduce, and persist within the community under continued climate change.