Future Climate in the Tibetan Plateau from a Statistical Regional Climate Model
Future Climate in the Tibetan Plateau from a Statistical Regional Climate Model
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-13-00187.1
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发表时间：
2013-04
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Xiuhua Zhu;Weiqiang Wang;K. Fraedrich
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xiuhua Zhu;Weiqiang Wang;K. Fraedrich
作者使用统计区域气候模型[统计区域模型（星星）]预测2015 - 50年青藏高原（TP）的气候。覆盖1958 - 2001年的再分析数据集被用作观测的替代，并由星星重新采样，以最佳地拟合来自马克斯普朗克研究所地球系统模型（MPI-ESM）模拟的规定线性温度趋势，用于代表性浓度路径2.6下的耦合模型相互比较项目（CMIP 5）第5阶段（RCP2.6）和RCP4.5模式，考虑了精心选择的最佳/最差集合成员的温度趋势，以评估相关的不确定性。结果表明：（1）1958 - 2001年的空间平均气温将上升0.68 - 0.98 ℃，除夏季外，其它月份的升幅均超过18 ℃，表明年周期缩短;日最低气温上升快于日最高气温，近地面气温日较差变窄。(ii)降水的增加主要发生在初夏和秋季，这可能是由于亚洲夏季风的提前爆发和推迟撤退。(iii)春季、初夏和秋季霜冻日数和结冰日数均减少1 ~ 2天，霜冻日数的减少与降水量的增加呈负相关。(iv)青藏高原各地的度日数增加，增幅最大的是柴达木盆地和青藏高原南部边缘地区，这将导致当地季节冻土明显融化，气温年较差减小，增幅最大的是青藏高原南部。
The authors use a statistical regional climate model [Statistical Regional Model (STAR)] to project the Tibetan Plateau (TP) climate for the period 2015‐50. Reanalysis datasets covering 1958‐2001 are used as a substitute of observations and resampled by STAR to optimally fit prescribed linear temperature trends derived from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) simulations for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6)andRCP4.5scenarios.Toassesstherelateduncertainty, temperaturetrendsfromcarefullyselected best/worst ensemble members are considered. In addition, an extra projection is forced by observed temperaturetrendsin1958‐2001.Thefollowingresultsareobtained:(i)Spatialaveragetemperaturewillincrease by 0.68‐0.98C; the increase exceeds 18C in all months except in boreal summer, thus indicating a reduced annual cycle; and daily minimum temperature rises faster than daily maximum temperature, resulting in a narrowing of the diurnal range of near-surface temperature. (ii) Precipitation increase mainly occurs in early summer and autumn possibly because of an earlier onset and later withdrawal of the Asian summer monsoon. (iii) Both frost and ice days decrease by 1‐2 days in spring, early summer, and autumn, and the decrease of frost days on the annual course is inversely related to the precipitation increase. (iv) Degree-days increase all over the TP with peak amplitude in the Qaidam Basin and the southern TP periphery, which will result in distinct melting of the local seasonal frozen ground, and the annual temperature range will decrease with stronger amplitude in south TP.