Aging in America in the Twenty-first Century: Demographic Forecasts from the MacArthur Foundation Research Network on an Aging Society
Aging in America in the Twenty-first Century: Demographic Forecasts from the MacArthur Foundation Research Network on an Aging Society
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1468-0009.2009.00581.x
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发表时间：
2009-12-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Rowe, John W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Olshansky, S. Jay;Goldman, Dana P.;Rowe, John W.
方法：采用队列成分方法进行预测，前提是未来几十年死亡风险将受到生物医学技术加速进步的影响，生物医学技术的进步要么延缓重大致命疾病的发病和年龄进展，要么减缓衰老过程本身。结果：结果表明，美国社会保障管理局和美国人口普查局目前的预测可能低估了到2050年男性和女性出生时预期寿命之和的增长，结论：与当前的政府预测相比，医疗保险和社会保障的累计支出可能高出3.2至8.3万亿美元。这篇文章讨论了这些结果对老龄化社会的好处和代价的影响，以及健康差距可能减弱其中一些变化的前景。
Methods: Forecasts were made with a cohort-components methodology, based on the premise that the risk of death will be influenced in the coming decades by accelerated advances in biomedical technology that either delay the onset and age progression of major fatal diseases or that slow the aging process itself.Findings: Results indicate that the current forecasts of the U.S. Social Security Administration and U.S. Census Bureau may underestimate the rise in life expectancy at birth for men and women combined, by 2050, from 3.1 to 7.9 years.Conclusions: The cumulative outlays for Medicare and Social Security could be higher by $3.2 to $8.3 trillion relative to current government forecasts. This article discusses the implications of these results regarding the benefits and costs of an aging society and the prospect that health disparities could attenuate some of these changes.