Modeling regional economic resilience to disasters: A computable general equilibrium analysis of water service disruptions
Modeling regional economic resilience to disasters: A computable general equilibrium analysis of water service disruptions
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/j.0022-4146.2005.00365.x
复制
发表时间：
2005-02-01
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Liao, SY
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rose, A;Liao, SY
最近的自然和人为灾害对区域经济产生了重大影响。然而，这些影响由于个别企业和区域市场的复原力而减弱，复原力指的是使公司和区域能够避免潜在损失的固有能力和适应性反应。可计算一般均衡（CGE）分析是一种很有前途的灾害影响分析方法，因为它能够模拟对投入短缺和不断变化的市场条件的行为反应。然而，如果没有进一步的改进，可计算一般均衡模型以及几乎所有其他经济模型，在基于历史数据时，只反映“一切照旧”的情况。本文提出了CGE分析的主要供应中断的关键投入：指定操作定义的个别企业和区域宏观经济弹性，生产函数参数连接到各种类型的生产者在紧急情况下的适应，开发算法重新校准生产函数的经验或模拟数据，并分解部分和一般均衡响应。我们说明了这些贡献的一个案例研究的部门和区域经济的影响，在大地震后的波特兰大都会供水系统中断。
Recent natural and manmade disasters have had significant regional economic impacts. These effects have been muted, however, by the resilience of individual businesses and of regional markets, which refers to the inherent ability and adaptive responses that enable firms and regions to avoid potential losses. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis is a promising approach to disaster impact analysis because it is able to model the behavioral response to input shortages and changing market conditions. However, without further refinement, CGE models, as well as nearly all other economic models, reflect only "business-as-usual" conditions, when they are based on historical data. This paper advances the CGE analysis of major supply disruptions of critical inputs by: specifying operational definitions of individual business and regional macroeconomic resilience, linking production function parameters to various types of producer adaptations in emergencies, developing algorithms for recalibrating production functions to empirical or simulation data, and decomposing partial and general equilibrium responses. We illustrate some of these contributions in a case study of the sectoral and regional economic impacts of a disruption to the Portland Metropolitan Water System in the aftermath of a major earthquake.