Meteorological factors are associated with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jiaonan County, China, 2006-2011
Meteorological factors are associated with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jiaonan County, China, 2006-2011
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DOI：
10.1007/s00484-013-0688-1
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发表时间：
2014-08-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Liu, Qiyong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lin, Hualiang;Zhang, Zhentang;Liu, Qiyong
采用惩罚光滑样条广义加性模型，分析了2006 - 2011年胶南市气象因素对肾综合征出血热（HFRS）发病的影响。首先检验剂量-反应关系，然后根据剂量-反应曲线研究每日气象变量与HFRS发生的关系。温度-HFRS关系曲线呈两段直线。当每日温度低于17 A ° C时，发现正相关[当天1 A ° C升高的过度风险（ER）为2.56%，95%置信区间（CI）：0.36%至4.80%]。当每日温度高于17 A ° C时，发现负相关[当天1 A ° C升高的ER为-12.82%（95%CI：-17.51%至-7.85%）]。观察到相对湿度[滞后第4天增加1%的ER为-1.21%（95%CI：-1.63%至-0.79%）]和降雨量[滞后第1天增加1 mm的ER为-2.20%（95%CI：-3.56%至-0.82%）]呈负相关。气象因素可能是胶南县HFRS流行的重要预测因子。
This study examined the effect of meteorological factors on the occurrence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) using a generalized additive model with penalized smoothing splines in Jiaonan, China, from 2006 to 2011. The dose-response relationship was first examined, and then the association between daily meteorological variables and HFRS occurrence was investigated according to the dose-response curves. There were two linear segments in the temperature-HFRS relationship curve. When daily temperature was lower than 17 A degrees C, a positive association was found [with excessive risk (ER) for 1 A degrees C increase on the current day being 2.56 %, 95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.36 % to 4.80 %]. An inverse association was found when daily temperature was higher than 17 A degrees C [ER for 1 A degrees C increase on the current day was -12.82 % (95 % CI: -17.51 % to -7.85 %)]. Inverse associations were observed for relative humidity [ER for 1 % increase on lag day 4 was -1.21 % (95 % CI: -1.63 % to -0.79 %)] and rainfall [ER for 1 mm increase on lag day 1 was -2.20 % (95 % CI: -3.56 % to -0.82 %)]. Meteorological factors might be important predictor of HFRS epidemics in Jiaonan County.