Climatic niche shifts in 815 introduced plant species affect their predicted distributions
Climatic niche shifts in 815 introduced plant species affect their predicted distributions
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DOI：
10.1111/geb.13342
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发表时间：
2021-06-10
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Barney, Jacob N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Atwater, Daniel Zachariah;Barney, Jacob N.
目的 引进物种在其引进地区通常所处的气候与其原生地区不同，但这种“气候生态位变化”在多大程度上干扰了我们预测入侵的能力？如果我们要了解入侵物种对人类和自然系统构成的威胁，回答这个问题至关重要，特别是考虑到越来越多地使用物种分布模型作为入侵物种风险评估和管理的工具。在这里，我们研究了气候生态位变化对本地和引进物种分布模型的可转移性的干扰程度。位置我们的数据集包括c。 1400 万次事件分布在全球范围内。时间段 事件数据是从大约 1000 年的在线存储库中收集的。 1600 年，其中绝大多数来自 20 世纪。气候数据代表 1970 年至 2000 年之间的平均值。研究的主要分类单元我们的数据库代表 815 种陆地植物物种。方法我们使用排序来识别物种在大陆之间迁移时的气候生态位变化。接下来，我们使用本地或引入范围内的事件训练单独的 Maxent 模型，并将这些模型投影到每个物种的引入范围内。我们比较了排序模型和 Maxent 模型，以确定生态位变化是否与 Maxent 预测中的错误相关。结果 对本地范围事件进行训练的模型对引入范围事件的预测效果不佳，并且在气候生态位变化较大的物种中，可转移性最低。物种预测地理分布的方向性变化反映了它们的生态位动态。这是令人担忧的，因为本地范围数据通常用于预测引入范围分布。主要结论我们的结果强调了在对引入物种的潜在地理分布进行建模时考虑生态位变化的重要性，并对物种的气候生态位可以在本地和入侵范围之间转移的假设提出质疑。
Aim Introduced species often occupy different climates in their introduced than their native range, but to what degree do such 'climatic niche shifts' interfere with our ability to predict invasions? Answering this question is crucial if we are to understand the threat invasive species pose to human and natural systems, especially given the ever increasing use of species distribution models as tools for invasive species risk assessment and management. Here we investigated the degree to which climatic niche shifts interfered with the transferability of native- and introduced-range species distribution models.Location Our dataset consisted of c. 14 million occurrences distributed worldwide.Time period Occurrence data were collected from online repositories dating from c. 1600 with the vast majority being from the 20th century. Climatic data represent means between 1970 and 2000.Major taxa studied Our database represented 815 terrestrial plant species.Methods We used ordination to identify climatic niche shifts as species moved between continents. Next, we trained separate Maxent models using native- or introduced-range occurrences, and projected those models into each species' introduced range. We compared the ordination and Maxent models to determine whether niche shifts were associated with errors in Maxent predictions.Results Models trained on native-range occurrences poorly predicted introduced-range occurrences, and transferability was lowest in species with large climatic niche shifts. Directional shifts in species' predicted geographic distributions mirrored their niche dynamics. This is concerning because native-range data are often used to predict introduced-range distributions.Main conclusions Our results highlight the importance of considering niche shifts when modelling the potential geographic distributions of introduced species, and cast doubt on the assumption that the climatic niche of a species can be transferred between native and invasive ranges.