Neo-Atlantis: The Netherlands under a 5-m sea level rise
Neo-Atlantis: The Netherlands under a 5-m sea level rise
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新亚特兰蒂斯：荷兰海平面上升 5 米
DOI：
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Huitema
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
X. Olsthoorn;P. V. D. Werff;L. Bouwer;D. Huitema
如果在2030年，海平面开始上升，并最终在100年后达到比目前高5米的海平面，荷兰会发生什么？通过研究文献、采访广泛不同领域的专家以及举办关于这一问题的专家讲习班来解决这一问题。虽然大多数专家认为，地貌和目前的工程技术将使该国能够在很大程度上保持其领土完整，但有理由认为这不太可能发生。重要政治决策之前的社会进程--如对海平面上升现实的信念的增长以及在适当的政治背景（政策窗口）中制定此类决策--演变缓慢。洪水灾害将加快决策过程。接受调查的专家的共同看法是，荷兰的一部分最终将被放弃。
What could happen to the Netherlands if, in 2030, the sea level starts to rise and eventually, after 100 years, a sea level of 5 m above current level would be reached? This question is addressed by studying literature, by interviewing experts in widely differing fields, and by holding an expert workshop on this question. Although most experts believe that geomorphology and current engineering skills would enable the country to largely maintain its territorial integrity, there are reasons to assume that this is not likely to happen. Social processes that precede important political decisions – such as the growth of the belief in the reality of sea level rise and the framing of such decisions in a proper political context (policy window) – evolve slowly. A flood disaster would speed up the decision-making process. The shared opinion of the experts surveyed is that eventually part of the Netherlands would be abandoned.