Modified logit life table system: principles, empirical validation, and application
Modified logit life table system: principles, empirical validation, and application
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DOI：
10.1080/0032472032000097083
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发表时间：
2003-07-01
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Ahmad, O
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Murray, CJL;Ferguson, BD;Ahmad, O
尽管Coale-Demeny模型生命表系统得到广泛使用，但它并没有反映在当代人口中观察到的年龄别死亡率模式的广泛差异，特别是在东欧国家和受艾滋病毒/艾滋病影响的人口中。虽然相关死亡率模型，如黄铜logit系统，可以识别这些变化，这些模型显示系统偏差，其预测能力的死亡率水平偏离标准。我们提出了一个修改的双参数黄铜关系模型。修改后的模型结合了两个额外的年龄特定的校正因子（伽马（x）和θ（x））的基础上，儿童和成人的死亡率水平，相对于标准。预测有效性测试表明，拟议系统预测的年龄别死亡率偏差比Coale-Demeny系统预测的低30%至50%，比使用原始Brass系统预测的低15%至40%。修改后的logit系统是一个双参数系统，使用值l（5）和l（60）进行参数化。
Despite its widespread use, the Coale-Demeny model life table system does not capture the extensive variation in age-specific mortality patterns observed in contemporary populations, particularly those of the countries of Eastern Europe and populations affected by HIV/AIDS. Although relational mortality models, such as the Brass logit system, can identify these variations, these models show systematic bias in their predictive ability as mortality levels depart from the standard. We propose a modification of the two-parameter Brass relational model. The modified model incorporates two additional age-specific correction factors (gamma(x), and theta(x)) based on mortality levels among children and adults, relative to the standard. Tests of predictive validity show deviations in age-specific mortality rates predicted by the proposed system to be 30-50 per cent lower than those predicted by the Coale-Demeny system and 15-40 per cent lower than those predicted using the original Brass system. The modified logit system is a two-parameter system, parameterized using values of l(5) and l(60).