Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Sizes Required to Serve Different Levels of Demand
Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Sizes Required to Serve Different Levels of Demand
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DOI：
10.3141/2542-13
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发表时间：
2016-01-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Axhausen, Kay W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Boesch, Patrick M.;Ciari, Francesco;Axhausen, Kay W.
自动驾驶汽车（AV）为未来的移动性带来了许多好处。其中之一是减少所需的车队总规模，特别是如果自动驾驶汽车主要用作共享车辆。本文介绍了研究这种潜在的减少大苏黎世，瑞士，地区。车队的共享自动驾驶汽车服务于预定义的需求进行了模拟的仿真框架中介绍的文件。结合AV需求水平和供应水平的情景（即，AV舰队规模）创建。这项研究的一个重要贡献是使用高度详细的空间和时间分辨率的旅行需求，超越了以前关于这个问题的研究中使用的简化。这一详细的旅行需求为正在进行的关于未来车队规模的讨论提供了更坚实的基础。结果发现，对于一个给定的车队性能目标（这里，目标是95%的所有运输请求在5分钟内得到服务），服务需求和所需的车队规模之间的关系是非线性的，比例随着需求的增加而增加。检测到规模效应。这种影响具有重要意义，即对于不同的需求水平，车队的使用效率或高或低。这项研究还发现，如果接受长达10分钟的等待时间，即使没有积极的车队管理，如车辆重新分配，也可以减少高达90%的车辆总数。然而，这种影响要求汽车需求的足够大的份额由自动驾驶汽车提供。
Automated vehicles (AVs) promise many benefits for future mobility. One of them is a reduction of the required total vehicle fleet size, especially if AVs are used predominantly as shared vehicles. This paper presents research on this potential reduction for the greater Zurich, Switzerland, region. Fleets of shared AVs serving a predefined demand were simulated with a simulation framework introduced in the paper. Scenarios combining levels of demand for AVs with levels of supply (i.e., AV fleet sizes) were created. An important contribution of this study is the use of travel demand at highly detailed spatial and temporal resolutions that goes beyond the simplifications used in previous studies on the topic. This detailed travel demand provides a more solid basis for the ongoing discussion about the future fleet size. It was found that for a given fleet performance target (here, the target was for 95% of all transport requests to be served within 5 min), the relationship between served demand and required fleet size was nonlinear and the ratio increased as demand increased. A scale effect was detected. This effect has the important implication that for different levels of demand the fleet is used more or less efficiently. This study also found that if waiting times of up to 10 min were accepted, a reduction of up to 90% of the total vehicle fleet could be possible even without active fleet management, like vehicle redistribution. Such effects require, however, that a large enough share of the car demand be served by AVs.