The UK Intranational Trade Cycle
The UK Intranational Trade Cycle
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英国国际贸易周期
DOI：
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Toshihiro Okubo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Artis;Toshihiro Okubo
本文使用英国各地区和12个制造业部门的真实的GDP年度数据，使用惠普过滤器推导出地区和地区/部门商业周期。通过与日本、美国和欧元区的区域周期的互相关和比较，研究了周期的凝聚力。英国出现特别凝聚力和努力，以解释区域GDP的整体互相关不是很成功，由于显式的方差较低;当注意力转向部门/区域周期，其更大的方差是可能的，以证明经济变量，如距离，不同的结构和水平的产出发挥了重要作用，在解释方差的互相关。与欧盟国家相关的互相关的一个重要特征是，虽然它们继续为“英国特质”提供支持，但它们不再像以前的数据样本那样强烈。
The paper uses annual data on real GDP for the UK regions and 12 manufacturing sectors to derive regional and regional/sectoral business cycles using an H-P filter. The cohesion of the cycles is examined via cross-correlations and comparisons made with the regional cycles for Japan, the United States and the EuroArea. The UK emerges as especially cohesive and efforts to explain the overall cross-correlations of regional GDP not very successful owing to the low variance of the explicand; when attention is turned to the sectoral/regional cycles, with their greater variance it is possible to demonstrate that economic variables such as distance, dissimilarity in structure and level of output play a significant role in explaining the variance in the cross-correlations. A significant feature of the cross-correlations in relation to those of EU countries is that whilst they continue to provide support for the "UK idiosyncrasy" they no longer do so as strongly as they did in earlier data samples.