Climate velocity reveals increasing exposure of deep-ocean biodiversity to future warming
Climate velocity reveals increasing exposure of deep-ocean biodiversity to future warming
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-020-0773-5
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发表时间：
2020-05-25
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Richardson, Anthony J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brito-Morales, Isaac;Schoeman, David S.;Richardson, Anthony J.
深海的缓慢变暖促使人们认为，深海生物多样性受气候变化影响的程度低于表层沃茨。我们通过分析气候速度来挑战这一概念，气候速度为物种的范围变化提供了预期。我们发现，当代（1955-2005）的气候速度在深海比在表面更快。此外，在所考虑的最积极的温室气体减缓途径（代表性浓度途径，RCP 2.6）下，除地表外，未来（2050-2100年）所有深层的预测气候速度都更快。这表明，虽然减缓措施可以限制气候变化对表层生物多样性的威胁，但深海生物多样性面临着气候速度不可避免的上升，在中层（200- 1 000米）最明显。为了优化深海群落适应气候的机会，未来的公海保护区的设计必须能够在气候变化的情况下保留在不同深度以不同速度移动的物种，同时管理渔业和采矿等非气候威胁。随着海洋变暖，海洋生物多样性面临风险，但目前的重点一直在表面，因为深海变暖较少。气候速度-等温线位移的速度和方向-被计算为在深海更快，预测显示，这种差异将继续扩大。
Slower warming in the deep ocean encourages a perception that its biodiversity is less exposed to climate change than that of surface waters. We challenge this notion by analysing climate velocity, which provides expectations for species' range shifts. We find that contemporary (1955-2005) climate velocities are faster in the deep ocean than at the surface. Moreover, projected climate velocities in the future (2050-2100) are faster for all depth layers, except at the surface, under the most aggressive GHG mitigation pathway considered (representative concentration pathway, RCP 2.6). This suggests that while mitigation could limit climate change threats for surface biodiversity, deep-ocean biodiversity faces an unavoidable escalation in climate velocities, most prominently in the mesopelagic (200-1,000 m). To optimize opportunities for climate adaptation among deep-ocean communities, future open-ocean protected areas must be designed to retain species moving at different speeds at different depths under climate change while managing non-climate threats, such as fishing and mining.Marine biodiversity is at risk as the ocean warms, but currently the focus has been at the surface as the deep ocean has warmed less. Climate velocity-the speed and direction of isotherm displacement-is calculated to be faster in the deep ocean, and projections show this difference will grow.