Violent Deaths of Iraqi Civilians, 2003-2008: Analysis by Perpetrator, Weapon, Time, and Location
Violent Deaths of Iraqi Civilians, 2003-2008: Analysis by Perpetrator, Weapon, Time, and Location
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pmed.1000415
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发表时间：
2011-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
15.8
通讯作者：
Spagat, Michael
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hicks, Madelyn Hsiao-Rei;Dardagan, Hamit;Spagat, Michael
背景：武装暴力是伊拉克的一个主要公共卫生和人道主义问题。在这份描述性统计分析中，我们旨在首次描述伊拉克战争头5年期间武装暴力肇事者造成的伊拉克平民死亡：随着时间的推移;按使用的武器;按地区方法和结果：我们分析了伊拉克死亡人数数据库，其中包括2003年3月20日至2008年3月19日发生的92,614名伊拉克平民直接死于武装暴力，其中，身份不明的肇事者造成了74%的死亡（n = 68，396），联军12%（n = 11，516），反联军11%（n = 9，954）。我们分析了14，196起短期致命暴力事件中的60，481名平民死亡的子集，将个别平民死亡与涉及肇事者及其方法的事件联系起来。三分之一的平民暴力死亡是由身份不明的肇事者法外处决造成的;二次回归显示，随着伊拉克各省其他形式暴力造成的死亡人数增加，这些死亡人数逐渐不成比例地增加。平均每起平民死亡事件中平民死亡人数最多的是针对平民的不明身份者自杀式爆炸（每起致命事件19人）和联军空中轰炸（每起致命事件17人）。从时间上分析，联军空袭造成的平民死亡人数以及联军部队造成的妇女和儿童死亡人数在入侵期间达到高峰。我们应用了妇女和儿童“肮脏战争指数”（DWI），衡量已知人口统计状况的平民死亡中妇女和儿童的比例，以确定为男性，女性或儿童的22，066名平民受害者，以表明相对不加区分的肇事者影响。DWI的调查结果表明，对妇女和儿童造成最大滥杀滥伤影响的是身份不明的肇事者使用迫击炮（DWI = 79）和非自杀式汽车炸弹（DWI = 54）以及联军空袭（DWI = 69）。联军的妇女和儿童醉酒驾车指数高于反联军，在2003-2008年期间，所有武器的总和，特别是小武器射击的数字没有下降的迹象。2003年至2008年伊拉克战争期间，大多数伊拉克平民的暴力死亡是由身份不明的肇事者造成的，主要是通过法外处决，这种处决在暴力死亡人数较多的地区不成比例地增加。身份不明的肇事者使用自杀炸弹、汽车炸弹和迫击炮，对他们所针对的伊拉克平民具有高度致命和滥杀滥伤的作用。联军造成的伊拉克平民、妇女和儿童死亡人数在入侵期间达到高峰，空中武器造成了相对不加区别的影响。
Background: Armed violence is a major public health and humanitarian problem in Iraq. In this descriptive statistical analysis we aimed to describe for the first time Iraqi civilian deaths caused by perpetrators of armed violence during the first 5 years of the Iraq war: over time; by weapon used; by region (governorate); and by victim demographics.Methods and Findings: We analyzed the Iraq Body Count database of 92,614 Iraqi civilian direct deaths from armed violence occurring from March 20, 2003 through March 19, 2008, of which Unknown perpetrators caused 74% of deaths (n = 68,396), Coalition forces 12% (n = 11,516), and Anti-Coalition forces 11% (n = 9,954). We analyzed the subset of 60,481 civilian deaths from 14,196 short-duration events of lethal violence to link individual civilian deaths to events involving perpetrators and their methods. One-third of civilian violent death was from extrajudicial executions by Unknown perpetrators; quadratic regression shows these deaths progressively and disproportionately increased as deaths from other forms of violence increased across Iraq's governorates. The highest average number of civilians killed per event in which a civilian died were in Unknown perpetrator suicide bombings targeting civilians (19 per lethal event) and Coalition aerial bombings (17 per lethal event). In temporal analysis, numbers of civilian deaths from Coalition air attacks, and woman and child deaths from Coalition forces, peaked during the invasion. We applied a Woman and Child "Dirty War Index" (DWI), measuring the proportion of women and children among civilian deaths of known demographic status, to the 22,066 civilian victims identified as men, women, or children to indicate relatively indiscriminate perpetrator effects. DWI findings suggest the most indiscriminate effects on women and children were from Unknown perpetrators using mortar fire (DWI = 79) and nonsuicide vehicle bombs (DWI = 54) and from Coalition air attacks (DWI = 69). Coalition forces had higher Woman and Child DWIs than Anti-Coalition forces, with no evidence of decrease over 2003-2008, for all weapons combined and for small arms gunfire, specifically.Conclusions: Most Iraqi civilian violent deaths during 2003-2008 of the Iraq war were inflicted by Unknown perpetrators, primarily through extrajudicial executions that disproportionately increased in regions with greater numbers of violent deaths. Unknown perpetrators using suicide bombs, vehicle bombs, and mortars had highly lethal and indiscriminate effects on the Iraqi civilians they targeted. Deaths caused by Coalition forces of Iraqi civilians, women, and children peaked during the invasion period, with relatively indiscriminate effects from aerial weapons.