Evaluating the Consequences of an Inland Waterway Port Closure With a Dynamic Multiregional Interdependence Model
Evaluating the Consequences of an Inland Waterway Port Closure With a Dynamic Multiregional Interdependence Model
复制标题
用动态多区域相互依赖模型评估内河港口关闭的后果
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Barker
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. MacKenzie;K. Barker
作为连接驳船、火车和卡车运输方式的多式联运枢纽，内陆港口在美国和全球商业中发挥着重要作用。与沿海港口一样，内陆港口也面临恶意攻击、人为事故和自然灾害的风险。然而，大多数港口影响研究的重点是这些破坏性事件之一突然关闭沿海港口的后果。本文结合模拟和多区域投入产出模型，研究了突然关闭内陆港口的经济影响。该模拟模拟了在内陆水道港口突然关闭时公司可能如何反应，多区域动态不可操作输入输出模型量化了这些决策的相互依赖的影响。我们在涉及阿肯色河俄克拉荷马州港口的案例研究中部署了此模拟和模型。案例研究表明，如果公司因延迟交付商品而受到经济处罚，公司将通过火车运输产品，而不是等待港口重新开放。这些决定为使用该港口的州节省了数十亿美元的生产损失。我们讨论这些结果对关心限制港口关闭后果的政策制定者的影响。
As intermodal hubs connecting barge, train, and truck transportation modes, inland ports play an important role in U.S. and global commerce. Like coastal ports, inland ports face the risk of malevolent attacks, man-made accidents, and natural disasters. However, most port impact studies focus on the consequences of one of these disruptive events suddenly closing a coastal port. This paper examines the economic impact of suddenly closing an inland port by combining a simulation and a multiregional input-output model. The simulation models how companies may react if an inland waterway port suddenly closes, and the multiregional dynamic inoperability input-output model quantifies the interdependent effects of these decisions. We deploy this simulation and model on a case study involving an Oklahoma port on the Arkansas River. The case study indicates that, if a financial penalty is imposed on companies for delivering their commodities late, companies will move their products by train rather than wait for the port to reopen. These decisions save billions of dollars in production losses for the states that use the port. We discuss the implications of these results for policymakers concerned about limiting the consequences of port closures.