Risk of cancer from diagnostic X-rays:: estimates for the UK and 14 other countries
Risk of cancer from diagnostic X-rays:: estimates for the UK and 14 other countries
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DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(04)15433-0
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发表时间：
2004-01-31
期刊：
影响因子：
168.9
通讯作者：
Darby, S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Berrington de González, A;Darby, S
背景 诊断 X 射线是普通人群受到的最大人造辐射源，约占全球所有来源年度辐射总量的 14%。尽管诊断 X 射线具有很大的好处，但人们普遍认为，使用它们会带来一些患癌症的小风险。我们的目的是根据英国和其他 14 个发达国家每年进行的诊断性 X 射线检查的数量来估计这种风险的程度。方法我们使用生命表方法，将诊断性 X 射线的使用频率、估计的 X 射线对各个身体器官的辐射剂量以及主要基于日本原子弹幸存者的风险模型与基于人口的癌症发病率和所有死因的死亡率结合起来。结果表明，在英国，约 0.6% 的癌症患者75 岁之前患癌症的累积风险可能归因于 X 射线诊断。这个百分比相当于每年约 700 例癌症病例。在其他 13 个发达国家，归因风险的估计范围为 0.6% 至 1.8%，而在世界上估计年暴露频率最高的日本，其归因风险超过 3%。 解释 我们通过诊断 X 射线提供癌症风险的详细估计。计算涉及许多假设，因此不可避免地存在相当大的不确定性。不能排除我们高估风险的可能性，但我们大幅低估风险的可能性似乎不太可能。
Background Diagnostic X-rays are the largest man-made source of radiation exposure to the general population, contributing about 14% of the total annual exposure worldwide from all sources. Although diagnostic X-rays provide great benefits, that their use involves some small risk of developing cancer is generally accepted. Our aim was to estimate the extent of this risk on the basis of the annual number of diagnostic X-rays undertaken in the UK and in 14 other developed countries.Methods We combined data on the frequency of diagnostic X-ray use, estimated radiation doses from X-rays to individual body organs, and risk models, based mainly on the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, with population-based cancer incidence rates and mortality rates for all causes of death, using life table methods.Findings Our results indicate that in the UK about 0.6% of the cumulative risk of cancer to age 75 years could be attributable to diagnostic X-rays. This percentage is equivalent to about 700 cases of cancer per year. In 13 other developed countries, estimates of the attributable risk ranged from 0.6% to 1.8%, whereas in Japan, which had the highest estimated annual exposure frequency in the world, it was more than 3%.Interpretation We provide detailed estimates of the cancer risk from diagnostic X-rays. The calculations involved a number of assumptions and so are inevitably subject to considerable uncertainty. The possibility that we have overestimated the risks cannot be ruled out, but that we have underestimated them substantially seems unlikely.