THE EARTH IS ROUND (P-LESS-THAN.05)
THE EARTH IS ROUND (P-LESS-THAN.05)
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DOI：
10.1037/0003-066x.50.12.1103
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发表时间：
1994-12-01
影响因子：
16.4
通讯作者：
COHEN, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
COHEN, J
经过40年的严厉批评，零假设显著性检验的仪式-围绕神圣的0.05标准的机械二分法决定-仍然存在。 本文回顾了这种做法的问题，包括它的几乎普遍的误解p的概率，H 0是假的，误解，其补充是成功复制的概率，并错误地假设，如果一个拒绝H 0，从而肯定的理论，导致测试。 探索性的数据分析和使用图形方法，稳步改善和走向标准化的测量，强调使用置信区间估计效应量，并明智地使用现有的统计方法的建议。 为了推广，心理学家最终必须依赖于复制，就像所有古老的科学一样。
After 4 decades of severe criticism, the ritual of null hypothesis significance testing-mechanical dichotomous decisions around a sacred .05 criterion-still persists. This article reviews the problems with this practice, including its near-universal misinterpretation of p as the probability that H0 is false, the misinterpretation that its complement is the probability of successful replication, and the mistaken assumption that if one rejects H0 one thereby affirms the theory that led to the test. Exploratory data analysis and the use of graphic methods, a steady improvement in and a movement toward standardization in measurement, an emphasis on estimating effect sizes using confidence intervals, and the informed use of available statistical methods is suggested. For generalization, psychologists must finally rely, as has been done in all the older sciences, on replication.