Strategic Foresight and Policy Evaluation: Insights for an Integrated Approach
Strategic Foresight and Policy Evaluation: Insights for an Integrated Approach
复制标题
战略远见和政策评估：综合方法的见解
DOI：
10.1017/err.2023.77
复制
发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
De Vito L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
De Vito L
巨大的挑战正在塑造21世纪的政治。与健康、气候、人口和福利有关的威胁日益侵入公民的生活。尽管如此，政府经常被发现猝不及防，政策制定者需要基于长期视角的战略。战略远见（SF）帮助我们设计和制定政策，为抵御冲击做好准备，预测和适应变化。然而，随着政府努力将科学技术融入其政策制定过程，经验证据表明，科学技术的应用仍然是零碎的，主要局限于议程设置和政策制定阶段。在本文中，我们认为，为了推动预见性治理，需要在政策周期的所有阶段应用预见性，包括在评估政策以吸取未来干预措施的经验教训时。我们认为，在整个政策制定周期中，从议程设置到评估，系统地考虑SF，可以加强预期治理。
Grand challenges are shaping twenty-first-century politics. Threats connected to health, climate, demographics and welfare are increasingly intruding on the lives of citizens. Still, governments are often found off-guard, and policymakers need strategies grounded in longer-term perspectives. Strategic foresight (SF) helps us to design and shape policies to prepare to withstand shocks, anticipating and adapting to changes. However, as governments work towards embedding SF into their policymaking processes, the empirical evidence suggests that applications are still piecemeal and predominantly limited to the agenda-settings and policy formulation stages. In this article, we argue that to drive anticipatory governance, foresight needs to be applied at all stages of the policy cycle, including in evaluating policies to draw lessons for future interventions. We maintain that considering SF systemically throughout the policymaking cycle, from agenda setting to evaluation, strengthens anticipatory governance.