Interannual SAM Modulation of Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Does Not Account for Its Long‐Term Trends, Pointing to a Limited Role for Ozone Depletion
Interannual SAM Modulation of Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Does Not Account for Its Long‐Term Trends, Pointing to a Limited Role for Ozone Depletion
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DOI：
10.1029/2021gl094871
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发表时间：
2021-10
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
L. Polvani;A. Banerjee;R. Chemke;E. Doddridge;D. Ferreira;A. Gnanadesikan;M. Holland;Y. Kostov;J. Marshall;W. Seviour;S. Solomon;D. Waugh
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作者：
L. Polvani;A. Banerjee;R. Chemke;E. Doddridge;D. Ferreira;A. Gnanadesikan;M. Holland;Y. Kostov;J. Marshall;W. Seviour;S. Solomon;D. Waugh
自1979年以来，在温室气体不断增加的情况下，南极海冰的扩张仍然是当前气候变化最令人困惑的特征之一。一些研究提出，通过南方环形模式形成的臭氧洞可能解释这种扩张，最近的一篇论文强调了夏季南方环形模式（SAM）异常与随后秋季海冰异常之间的强有力的因果关系。在这里，我们表明，许多模型都能够捕捉到SAM和海冰之间的这种关系，但也强调SAM只解释了一小部分的年度变化。最后，检查几十年的趋势，在模型和观测中，我们证实了以前的几项研究的结果，并得出结论，SAM-从而臭氧洞-不是近几十年来南极洲周围海冰扩张的主要驱动力。
The expansion of Antarctic sea ice since 1979 in the presence of increasing greenhouse gases remains one of the most puzzling features of current climate change. Some studies have proposed that the formation of the ozone hole, via the Southern Annular Mode, might explain that expansion, and a recent paper highlighted a robust causal link between summertime Southern Annular Mode (SAM) anomalies and sea ice anomalies in the subsequent autumn. Here we show that many models are able to capture this relationship between the SAM and sea ice, but also emphasize that the SAM only explains a small fraction of the year‐to‐year variability. Finally, examining multidecadal trends, in models and in observations, we confirm the findings of several previous studies and conclude that the SAM–and thus the ozone hole–are not the primary drivers of the sea ice expansion around Antarctica in recent decades.