Evaluating the Impact of Florida's "Stand Your Ground" Self-defense Lawon Homicide and Suicide by Firearm An Interrupted Time Series Study
Evaluating the Impact of Florida's "Stand Your Ground" Self-defense Lawon Homicide and Suicide by Firearm An Interrupted Time Series Study
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DOI：
10.1001/jamainternmed.2016.6811
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发表时间：
2017-01-01
影响因子：
39
通讯作者：
Wiebe, Douglas J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Humphreys, David K.;Gasparrini, Antonio;Wiebe, Douglas J.
2005年，佛罗里达修订了自卫法，为在自卫中使用致命武力的个人提供法律的豁免权。在美国制定的“坚守阵地”法律一直是有争议的，其对凶杀率和枪支凶杀率的影响是不确定的。目的评估佛罗里达的“坚守阵地”法律对凶杀率和枪支凶杀率的影响。我们分析了1999年至2014年期间佛罗里达的杀人和枪支杀人的月发生率。数据收集自疾病控制和预防中心的流行病学研究广泛在线数据（WONDER）门户网站。我们使用季节性调整的分段泊松回归模型来评估法律的生效是否与佛罗里达的凶杀和枪支凶杀的潜在趋势变化有关。我们还评估了相关性，使用比较州没有立场的法律（纽约，新泽西，俄亥俄州和弗吉尼亚州）和控制结果（所有自杀和自杀的枪支在佛罗里达）。2005年10月1日，该法律的生效日期，被用来定义杀人案之前和之后的变化。主要结果和措施每月的凶杀率，枪支相关的凶杀，自杀，自杀的枪支在佛罗里达和4个比较状态。结果：在坚持你的立场法之前，佛罗里达的平均月杀人率为每10万人0.49人死亡（平均月计数，81.93），枪支杀人率为每10万人0.29人死亡（平均月计数，49.06）。这两项利率的基本趋势是每月下降0.1%。在考虑了潜在趋势后，这些结果估计，在法律生效后，每月杀人率突然持续增加24.4%（相对风险[RR]，1.24; 95%CI，1.16-1.33），枪支杀人率为31.6%（RR，1.32; 95%CI，1.21-1.44）。在凶杀（RR，1.06; 95% CI，0.98-1.13）或火器凶杀（RR，1.08; 95% CI，0.99-1.17）的比较状态分析中未发现变化的证据。此外，自杀等控制结果没有观察到变化（RR，0.99; 95% CI，0.94-1.05）和火器自杀（RR，0.98; 95%可信区间，0.91-1.06）在佛罗里达之间的2005年和2014年。结论和相关性的实施佛罗里达的坚持你的立场自我-国防法与凶杀案和枪支凶杀案的显着增加有关，但自杀率或枪支自杀率没有变化。
IMPORTANCE In 2005, Florida amended its self-defense laws to provide legal immunity to individuals using lethal force in self-defense. The enactment of "stand your ground" laws in the United States has been controversial and their effect on rates of homicide and homicide by firearm is uncertain.OBJECTIVE To estimate the impact of Florida's stand your ground law on rates of homicide and homicide by firearm.DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Using an interrupted time series design, we analyzed monthly rates of homicide and homicide by firearm in Florida between 1999 and 2014. Data were collected from the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) web portal at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We used seasonally adjusted segmented Poisson regression models to assess whether the onset of the law was associated with changes in the underlying trends for homicide and homicide by firearm in Florida. We also assessed the association using comparison states without stand your ground laws (New York, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia) and control outcomes (all suicides and suicides by firearm in Florida). October 1, 2005, the effective date of the law, was used to define homicides before and after the change.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Monthly rates of homicide, firearm-related homicide, suicide, and suicide by firearm in Florida and the 4 comparison states. RESULTS Prior to the stand your ground law, the mean monthly homicide rate in Florida was 0.49 deaths per 100 000 (mean monthly count, 81.93), and the rate of homicide by firearm was 0.29 deaths per 100 000 (mean monthly count, 49.06). Both rates had an underlying trend of 0.1% decrease per month. After accounting for underlying trends, these results estimate that after the law took effect there was an abrupt and sustained increase in the monthly homicide rate of 24.4%(relative risk [RR], 1.24; 95% CI, 1.16-1.33) and in the rate of homicide by firearm of 31.6%(RR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.21-1.44). No evidence of change was found in the analyses of comparison states for either homicide (RR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.98-1.13) or homicide by firearm (RR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.99-1.17). Furthermore, no changes were observed in control outcomes such as suicide (RR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.94-1.05) and suicide by firearm (RR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.91-1.06) in Florida between 2005 and 2014.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The implementation of Florida's stand your ground self-defense law was associated with a significant increase in homicides and homicides by firearm but no change in rates of suicide or suicide by firearm.