Issues in generating stochastic observables for hydrological models
Issues in generating stochastic observables for hydrological models
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DOI：
10.1002/hyp.14203
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发表时间：
2021-06
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
K. Beven
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Beven
本文对水文观测值的随机生成模型进行了历史回顾和批评，从早期的月流量序列生成，通过连续模拟的洪水频率估计，到当前的天气生成器。此类模型会出现许多问题，从此类模型必须基于的观测数据的不确定性，到水文气候系统中潜在的持久性影响、基础分布中尾部行为的正确表示以及对未来情景的解释。
This paper provides a historical review and critique of stochastic generating models for hydrological observables, from early generation of monthly discharge series, through flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation, to current weather generators. There are a number of issues that arise in such models, from uncertainties in the observational data on which such models must be based, to the potential persistence effects in hydroclimatic systems, the proper representation of tail behaviour in the underlying distributions, and the interpretation of future scenarios.