Climate Econometrics
Climate Econometrics
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DOI：
10.1146/annurev-resource-100815-095343
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发表时间：
2016-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Hsiang, Solomon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hsiang, Solomon
确定气候对社会的影响对于理解历史经济发展、设计应对气候事件的现代政策以及管理未来的全球气候变化至关重要。在这里，我回顾、综合和解释用于衡量气候对社会和经济结果的影响的方法的最新进展。由于天气变化在最近的进展中起着很大的作用，我从计量经济学的角度将气候和天气之间的关系正式化，并讨论了这两个因素在识别变化时的使用，强调了不同研究设计中的关键假设之间的权衡，以及当天气变化准确地识别气候影响时的推导条件。然后，我描述了最近的进展，如从社会角度对气候变量进行参数化，使用具有空间和时间位移的非线性模型，表征不确定性，测量适应，交叉研究比较，以及使用经验估计来预测未来气候变化的影响。最后，我将讨论剩下的方法论挑战。
Identifying the effect of climate on societies is central to understanding historical economic development, designing modern policies that react to climatic events, and managing future global climate change. Here, I review, synthesize, and interpret recent advances in methods used to measure effects of climate on social and economic outcomes. Because weather variation plays a large role in recent progress, I formalize the relationship between climate and weather from an econometric perspective and discuss the use of these two factors as identifying variation, highlighting trade-offs between key assumptions in different research designs and deriving conditions when weather variation exactly identifies the effects of climate. I then describe recent advances, such as the parameterization of climate variables from a social perspective, use of nonlinear models with spatial and temporal displacement, characterization of uncertainty, measurement of adaptation, cross-study comparison, and use of empirical estimates to project the impact of future climate change. I conclude by discussing remaining methodological challenges.