Integrated recovery/recapture data analysis
Integrated recovery/recapture data analysis
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DOI：
10.2307/2533993
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发表时间：
1998-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Harris, MP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Catchpole, EA;Freeman, SN;Harris, MP
与单独使用回收或重新捕获的数据相比，整合回收和重新捕获的数据，提供关于相同个体的信息，对于稳定地拟合广泛的随机模型非常重要，从而产生对野生动物生存概率的更现实的估计。以前的综合分析要么只关注与时间相关的参数，要么在与年龄相关的情况下，没有为模型的改进和选择提供一个灵活的框架。我们推导出一个一般的综合模型的可能性，允许年龄和时间依赖的参数。这篇论文的工作是基于一组重获历史，生物学知识和先前的数据分析表明，在存活和重获概率上都存在年龄相关性。我们用这些数据来说明一般的方法。所有模型的拟合均采用最大似然法，并在MatLab中编制了程序。对于SHAGS，我们发现繁殖年龄的鸟类的年存活概率为0.87(标准差0.01)，第二和第三年的鸟类的年存活概率为0.70(0.02)。第一年的存活率随时间变化很大，平均约为0.46。
The integration of recovery and recapture data, providing information on the same individuals, is important for the stable fitting of a wide range of stochastic models, resulting in more realistic estimates of survival probabilities of wild animals than when either the recovery or recapture data are used separately. Previous integrated analyses have either concentrated on time-dependent parameters only or, in the age-dependent case, have not provided a flexible framework for model refinement and selection. We derive the likelihood for a general integrated model, allowing both age-and time-dependent parameters. The work of this paper was motivated by a set of recapture histories on shags (Phalacrocorax aristotelis), for which biological knowledge and previous data analysis suggest age dependence in both survival and recapture probabilities. We use these data to illustrate the general method. All model fitting is done by the method of maximum likelihood and the programming is done in MATLAB. For the shags, we found an annual survival probability of 0.87 (standard error 0.01) for birds of breeding age and 0.70 (0.02) for birds in their second and third years. First-year survival varied widely with time about an average of 0.46.