Downscaling global ocean climate models improves estimates of exposure regimes in coastal environments
Downscaling global ocean climate models improves estimates of exposure regimes in coastal environments
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-020-71169-6
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发表时间：
2020-08-26
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Woodson, C. B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fagundes, Matheus;Litvin, S. Y.;Woodson, C. B.
气候变化预计会使海水变暖、脱氧和酸化。全球气候模式（GCMs）预测大空间尺度上的未来条件，然后这些预测通常用于参数化实验室实验，旨在评估对未来变化的生物和生态响应。然而，近岸生态系统受到一系列物理过程的影响，如潮汐、局地风、面波和内波，导致当地条件的变化往往超过全球气候模式。对与生态反应最相关的地方尺度的未来气候条件的预测在很大程度上是缺乏的。为了填补这一关键空白，我们开发了区域海洋模拟系统（ROMS）的二维实现，将所有代表性浓度路径（RCP）情景的全球气候预测缩小到更小的空间尺度，在这种情况下是东北太平洋温带珊瑚礁的尺度。为了评估当地气候变化的潜在生物影响，我们利用不同气候情景的结果来估计气候变化如何影响具有代表性的海洋底栖无脊椎动物——红鲍鱼（Haliotis rufescens）在高度变化的多压力环境中的生存、生长和受精。我们发现温度、溶解氧（DO）和pH值的高频变化随着大气中pCO(2)的增加而增加。极端的温度和pH值通常要等到RCP达到4.5或更高时才会出现，而经常暴露在低DO环境中已经发生了。在近岸环境模拟中，与全球尺度模拟相比，在极端条件下，强RCP情景会影响红鲍鱼的生长，并减少施肥。
Climate change is expected to warm, deoxygenate, and acidify ocean waters. Global climate models (GCMs) predict future conditions at large spatial scales, and these predictions are then often used to parameterize laboratory experiments designed to assess biological and ecological responses to future change. However, nearshore ecosystems are affected by a range of physical processes such as tides, local winds, and surface and internal waves, causing local variability in conditions that often exceeds global climate models. Predictions of future climatic conditions at local scales, the most relevant to ecological responses, are largely lacking. To fill this critical gap, we developed a 2D implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to downscale global climate predictions across all Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios to smaller spatial scales, in this case the scale of a temperate reef in the northeastern Pacific. To assess the potential biological impacts of local climate variability, we then used the results from different climate scenarios to estimate how climate change may affect the survival, growth, and fertilization of a representative marine benthic invertebrate, the red abalone Haliotis rufescens, to a highly varying multi-stressor environment. We found that high frequency variability in temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), and pH increases as pCO(2) increases in the atmosphere. Extreme temperature and pH conditions are generally not expected until RCP 4.5 or greater, while frequent exposure to low DO is already occurring. In the nearshore environment simulation, strong RCP scenarios can affect red abalone growth as well as reduce fertilization during extreme conditions when compared to global scale simulations.