TARGET CHOICE DURING EXTREME EVENTS: A DISCRETE SPATIAL CHOICE MODEL OF THE 2011 LONDON RIOTS
TARGET CHOICE DURING EXTREME EVENTS: A DISCRETE SPATIAL CHOICE MODEL OF THE 2011 LONDON RIOTS
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DOI：
10.1111/1745-9125.12004
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发表时间：
2013-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Johnson, Shane D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Baudains, Peter;Braithwaite, Alex;Johnson, Shane D.
骚乱是极端事件，许多关于骚乱的早期研究表明，骚乱者的决策远非理性，只能从集体思维的角度来理解。在目前的研究中，我们得出并测试一套预期暴徒空间决策的理论，最初打算解释城市犯罪模式时，法律和秩序的犯罪模式和社会解体理论，并考虑集体行为和传染理论。为此，我们使用了2011年8月在伦敦发生的所有与骚乱有关的事件的数据，这些事件是由警方发现的。与大多数受害的研究，我们使用一个随机效用模型，同时研究如何由暴徒选择的目的地的功能，他们的行程的起源，和罪犯的特点影响罪犯的空间决策。结果表明，暴徒的目标选择是远离随机和支持所有三种类型的理论，但特别是犯罪模式理论。例如，骚乱者更有可能在离家近的地方参与骚乱，并选择包含常规活动节点和交通枢纽的区域，他们不太可能穿越泰晤士河。在传染性方面，发现骚乱者更有可能针对在过去24小时内经历过骚乱的地区。从政策的角度来看，研究结果提供了对骚乱期间可能最脆弱的地区类型以及为什么会出现这种情况以及特定地区何时可能处于这种类型的混乱的高风险中的见解。
Riots are extreme events, and much of the early research on rioting suggested that the decision making of rioters was far from rational and could only be understood from the perspective of a collective mind. In the current study, we derive and test a set of expectations regarding rioter spatial decision making developed from theories originally intended to explain patterns of urban crime when law and order prevailcrime pattern and social disorganization theoryand consider theories of collective behavior and contagion. To do this, we use data for all riot-related incidents that occurred in London in August 2011 that were detected by the police. Unlike most studies of victimization, we use a random utility model to examine simultaneously how the features of the destinations selected by rioters, the origins of their journeys, and the characteristics of the offenders influence offender spatial decision making. The results demonstrate that rioter target choices were far from random and provide support for all three types of theory, but for crime pattern theory in particular. For example, rioters were more likely to engage in the disorder close to their home location and to select areas that contained routine activity nodes and transport hubs, and they were less likely to cross the Thames River. In terms of contagion, rioters were found to be more likely to target areas that had experienced rioting in the previous 24 hours. From a policy perspective, the findings provide insight into the types of areas that may be most vulnerable during riots and why this is the case, and when particular areas are likely to be at an elevated risk of this type of disorder.