Crop pests and pathogens move polewards in a warming world
Crop pests and pathogens move polewards in a warming world
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate1990
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发表时间：
2013-11-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Gurr, Sarah J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bebber, Daniel P.;Ramotowski, Mark A. T.;Gurr, Sarah J.
全球粮食安全受到作物病虫害和病原体出现和传播的威胁。传播主要是由人类的交通运输促进的，但人们越来越担心气候变化允许在迄今为止不适合的地区建立。然而，气候变化、作物和害虫之间的相互作用是复杂的，农作物害虫和病原体在多大程度上改变了它们的纬度范围以响应全球变暖，这在很大程度上是未知的。在这里，我们证明了自1960年以来，在对数百种害虫和病原体的观察中，平均向极地移动2.7 +/- 0.8 km /年（-1），但在分类类群之间的趋势存在显著差异。观测偏差，即高纬度的发达国家比低纬度的发展中国家更早发现害虫，将导致向赤道的明显转移。在许多分类群中观测到的正纬度趋势支持了全球变暖驱动害虫运动的假设。
Global food security is threatened by the emergence and spread of crop pests and pathogens. Spread is facilitated primarily by human transportation, but there is increasing concern that climate change allows establishment in hitherto unsuitable regions. However, interactions between climate change, crops and pests are complex, and the extent to which crop pests and pathogens have altered their latitudinal ranges in response to global warming is largely unknown. Here, we demonstrate an average poleward shift of 2.7 +/- 0.8 km yr(-1) since 1960, in observations of hundreds of pests and pathogens, but with significant variation in trends among taxonomic groups. Observational bias, where developed countries at high latitudes detect pests earlier than developing countries at low latitudes, would result in an apparent shift towards the Equator. The observed positive latitudinal trends in many taxa support the hypothesis of global warming-driven pest movement.