Understanding Uncertainties in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard Modeling Using Synthetic Storms
Understanding Uncertainties in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard Modeling Using Synthetic Storms
复制标题
了解使用合成风暴的热带气旋降雨危害建模中的不确定性
DOI：
10.1175/jhm-d-21-0208.1
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Lin, Ning
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xi, Dazhi;Lin, Ning
热带气旋(TC)降雨危险性评估受热带气候学评估的偏差的影响，这些偏差来自气候模拟或合成缩减尺度。在这项研究中，我们使用雨量计和雷达观测以及合成风暴模式耦合的TC降雨模拟，研究了这种偏差导致的TC降雨危险性评估的不确定性。我们确定风暴的最大强度、影响持续时间和到现场的最小距离是影响TC降雨灾害的三个最重要的风暴参数，基于物理的TC降雨模式可以很好地捕捉到这些重要风暴参数与TC降雨之间的关系。由TC气候学偏差引起的合成降雨灾害的不确定性在很大程度上可以用合成风暴模式模拟的重要风暴参数的偏差来解释。校正最有偏参数的分布可能会显著改善降雨风险估计。基于重要参数的联合分布的偏差校正可以提供更准确的降雨风险估计；然而，在某些情况下，从高维联合概率分布重采样的一般技术困难阻碍了更准确的估计。这项研究的结果还支持未来通过已识别的重要风暴参数的未来变化的透镜来研究气候变化对TC降雨灾害的影响。
Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall hazard assessment is subject to the bias in TC climatology estimation from climate simulations or synthetic downscaling. In this study, we investigate the uncertainty in TC rainfall hazard assessment induced by this bias using both rain gauge and radar observations and synthetic-storm-model-coupled TC rainfall simulations. We identify the storm’s maximum intensity, impact duration, and minimal distance to the site to be the three most important storm parameters for TC rainfall hazard, and the relationship between the important storm parameters and TC rainfall can be well captured by a physics-based TC rainfall model. The uncertainty in the synthetic rainfall hazard induced by the bias in TC climatology can be largely explained by the bias in the important storm parameters simulated by the synthetic storm model. Correcting the distribution of the most biased parameter may significantly improve rainfall hazard estimation. Bias correction based on the joint distribution of the important parameters may render more accurate rainfall hazard estimations; however, the general technical difficulties in resampling from high-dimensional joint probability distributions prevent more accurate estimations in some cases. The results of the study also support future investigation of the impact of climate change on TC rainfall hazards through the lens of future changes in the identified important storm parameters.