II—Wendy S. Parker: Confirmation and adequacy-for-Purpose in Climate Modelling
II—Wendy S. Parker: Confirmation and adequacy-for-Purpose in Climate Modelling
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II—Wendy S. Parker：气候模型的确认和充分性
DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-8349.2009.00180.x
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
W. Parker
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
W. Parker
Lloyd（2009）认为，气候模型的输出与观测数据之间的各种拟合实例证实了气候模型。本文认为，这些拟合实例可能证实的不是气候模型本身，而是关于气候模型是否适合特定目的的假设。这种思维上的必要转变——从确认气候模型到确认它们的适用性——可能听起来微不足道，但事实证明，无论是在原则上还是在实践中，这都使气候模型的评估变得相当复杂。
Lloyd (2009) contends that climate models are confirmed by various instances of fit between their output and observational data. The present paper argues that what these instances of fit might confirm are not climate models themselves, but rather hypotheses about the adequacy of climate models for particular purposes. This required shift in thinking—from confirming climate models to confirming their adequacy-for-purpose—may sound trivial, but it is shown to complicate the evaluation of climate models considerably, both in principle and in practice.