Reliability of the NIPA Estimates of U.S. Economic Activity-猫眼课题宝

NIPA 对美国经济活动估计的可靠性

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2005

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Dennis J. Fixler;Bruce T. Grimm

BEA 国民收入和产品账户 (NIPA) 的目标是及时、全面和可靠地描述美国经济状况。国内生产总值（GDP）和国内总收入（GDI）这两项特色指标旨在提供特定时间的经济概况。本研究分析了 BEA 对 1983-2002 年 GDP、GDI 及其组成部分的季度和年度估计的可靠性。在本文中，“可靠性”是指这些措施的估计值的修正幅度。 1 修订被定义为从早期估算年份到较晚年份的变化（见“年份和修订时间”框）。最新的可用估计被认为是最佳估计，并用作可靠性标准。该研究证实了之前的研究，得出的结论是 BEA 的估计总体上是可靠的，因此这些估计提供了国家商品和服务产出的有用信息。具体而言，对这些估计值的连续修正通常能够表明增长是正增长还是负增长、增长是加速还是减速、增长相对于趋势是高还是低，以及经济与商业周期的关系。为了及时提供 GDP 估计值，经济分析局根据人口普查局调查的初步数据（例如零售销售和制造商出货量的数据）以及外推估计值（例如国际贸易和国内服务消费者支出的数据）准备季度估计值。当数据可用时，将对估计进行修订，以纳入来自调查、税务记录和其他行政记录的更全面、更最新的数据。最新的估计值通常不仅反映更新的源数据，还反映各种定义和统计的变化

HE goal of BEA’s national income and product accounts (NIPAs) is to provide timely, comprehensive, and reliable descriptions of the condition of the U.S. economy. Two featured measures—gross domestic product (GDP) and gross domestic income (GDI)—aim to provide snapshots of the economy at specified times. This study analyzes the reliability of BEA’s quarterly and annual estimates of GDP, of GDI, and of their components for 1983–2002. In this article, “reliability” refers to the magnitudes of the revisions to the estimates of these measures. 1 The revisions are defined as the changes from an earlier vintage of estimates to a later vintage (see the box “Vintages and Timing of Revisions”). The latest available estimates are presumed to be the best estimates and are used as the standards for reliability. Confirming previous research, the study concludes that BEA’s estimates are generally reliable and that these estimates thus present a useful picture of the Nation’s output of goods and services. Specifically, successive revisions to these estimates were usually able to indicate whether growth was positive or negative, whether growth was accelerating or decelerating, whether growth was high or low relative to trend, and where the economy was in relation to the business cycle. In order to present timely estimates of GDP, BEA prepares quarterly estimates that are based on preliminary data from Census Bureau surveys, such as those for retail sales and manufacturers’ shipments, and on extrapolated estimates, such as those for international trade and for consumer spending on domestic services. The estimates are revised to incorporate more comprehensive and more up-to-date data from surveys, tax records, and other administrative records when the data become available. The latest available estimates typically reflect not only updated source data but also changes in various definitions and statistical

Reliability of the NIPA Estimates of U.S. Economic Activity

NIPA 对美国经济活动估计的可靠性

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