SIR economic epidemiological models with disease induced mortality
SIR economic epidemiological models with disease induced mortality
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jmateco.2021.102476
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发表时间：
2021-03-09
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
Nguyen, Manh-Hung
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Goenka, Aditya;Liu, Lin;Nguyen, Manh-Hung
本文研究了一种最佳生长模型，其中存在具有 SIR 动态的传染病，可能导致死亡。可以通过卫生支出（或者封锁强度）来降低疾病的传染性。我们研究了两种不同的疾病相关死亡率模型（早期和晚期感染死亡率）对平衡健康和经济结果的影响。在前者中，死亡率的增加通过减少人口中感染者的比例来减少感染，而在后者中，感染者的比例则增加。我们描述稳态的特征，结果取决于死亡率的建模方式。对于早期死亡率，死亡率的增加会导致人均产出和消费的均衡增加，而在晚期死亡率模型中，这些会减少。我们建立了充分性条件，并在具有或不具有疾病相关死亡率的 SIR 动态经济模型中提供了第一个结果 - 一类非凸且具有内生贴现的模型，因此没有现有结果适用。 (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. 保留所有权利。
This paper studies an optimal growth model where there is an infectious disease with SIR dynamics which can lead to mortality. Health expenditures (alternatively intensity of lockdowns) can be made to reduce infectivity of the disease. We study implications of two different ways to model the disease related mortality - early and late in infection mortality - on the equilibrium health and economic outcomes. In the former, increasing mortality reduces infections by decreasing the fraction of infectives in the population, while in the latter the fraction of infectives increases. We characterize the steady states and the outcomes depend in the way mortality is modeled. With early mortality, increasing mortality leads to higher equilibrium per capita output and consumption while in the late mortality model these decrease. We establish sufficiency conditions and provide the first results in economic models with SIR dynamics with and without disease related mortality - a class of models which are non-convex and have endogenous discounting so that no existing results are applicable. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.