Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario‐Based Input‐Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations
Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario‐Based Input‐Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations
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DOI：
10.1111/risa.12473
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发表时间：
2016-05
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
S. Thekdi;J. Santos
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Thekdi;J. Santos
自然灾害、资源损失或减少、停工和紧急情况等破坏性事件有可能在贸易网络中传播经济损失。特别是，集装箱港口活动的运作中断可能对国际贸易和商业造成不利影响。风险评估应预测港口作业中断的影响，同时考虑到不确定情况下的优先次序如何变化，并指导有效和可行的实施投资。保护措施和业务连续性规划的优先事项必须考虑到这类中断在各种情况下的经济影响。本文引入了新的性能指标来表征相互依赖建模中的弹性，并集成了基于场景的方法来衡量对突发性中断的经济敏感度。这些方法将在美国一个每年处理361亿美元货物的港口上进行演示。这些方法将对港口管理、私营行业供应链规划和交通基础设施管理有用。
Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation. Priorities for protective measures and continuity of operations planning must consider the economic impact of such disruptions across a variety of scenarios. This article introduces new performance metrics to characterize resiliency in interdependency modeling and also integrates scenario‐based methods to measure economic sensitivity to sudden‐onset disruptions. The methods will be demonstrated on a U.S. port responsible for handling $36.1 billion of cargo annually. The methods will be useful to port management, private industry supply chain planning, and transportation infrastructure management.