The Dividend Displacement Property and the Substitution of Anticipated Earnings for Dividends in Equity Valuation
The Dividend Displacement Property and the Substitution of Anticipated Earnings for Dividends in Equity Valuation
复制标题
股利估值中的股利置换性质与预期收益对股利的替代
DOI：
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发表时间：
1996
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Theodore Sougiannis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Penman;Theodore Sougiannis
本文实证证明，在股票估值分析中，GAAP收益具有替代股息的特性。股息减少了随后的GAAP收益，通过预测收益计算的“内在”股票价格因此被当前股息降低。这与米勒和莫迪利阿尼原理——置换性质——是一致的，该原理指出，按美元计算，支付股息会降低价格。此外，本文表明，如果在从预测的GAAP收益计算股票价格时容纳这种位移，则这些价格表现出股息无关性，即计算价格对未来股息不敏感。调整包括将股息的置换值加入盈利预测。按美元计算，预计的GAAP收益不能代替股息，但两者在某种意义上是替代的，因为预期股息的重置价值减少了预计的收益，按美元计算。
The paper demonstrates empirically that GAAP earnings have properties to serve as a substitute for dividends in equity valuation analysis. Dividends reduce subsequent GAAP earnings, and "intrinsic" equity prices calculated by forecasting earnings are thus reduced by current dividends. This is in accordance with the Miller and Modigliani principle -- the displacement property -- which states that the payment of dividends reduces prices, dollar for dollar. Further, the paper demonstrates that if this displacement is accommodated in calculating equity prices from forecasted GAAP earnings, those prices exhibit the dividend irrelevance property, that is, calculated prices are insensitive to future dividends. The accommodation involves adding the displacement value of dividends to earnings forecasts. Forecasted GAAP earnings cannot be substituted for dividends, dollar for dollar, but the two are substitutes in the sense that the replacement value of expected dividends reduces forecasted earnings, dollar for dollar.