Impacts of Typhoon Track and Island Topography on the Heavy Rainfalls in Taiwan Associated with Morakot (2009)

Impacts of Typhoon Track and Island Topography on the Heavy Rainfalls in Taiwan Associated with Morakot (2009)
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台风路径及岛屿地形对台湾莫拉克暴雨的影响(2009)

DOI:
10.1175/mwr-d-11-00240.1
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发表时间:
2012-10
影响因子:
3.2
通讯作者:
Zhang Fuqing
Zhang Fuqing
中科院分区:
地球科学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Xie Baoguo;Xie Baoguo;Zhang Fuqing;Zhang Fuqing

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摘要利用气象研究与预报模式(WRF)进行了云分辨集合模拟和敏感性试验,探讨了莫拉克台风(2009)在台湾引发的破纪录降雨和洪水事件的动力学和可预测性。研究发现,在莫拉克登陆期间,良好的降雨预报首先需要良好的路径预报。在路径预报良好的情况下,台风环流与台湾南部复杂地形的相互作用是此次强降雨的主要成因。地形坡度、水平风强度和西南上坡气流对流层中下层水分含量是决定降雨位置和强度的主要因素。台风环流和西南季风气流为台湾南部输送了丰富的水汽,使台湾南部形成了强降水。
AbstractCloud-resolving ensemble simulations and sensitivity experiments utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) are performed to investigate the dynamics and predictability of the record-breaking rainfall and flooding event in Taiwan induced by Typhoon Morakot (2009). It is found that a good rainfall forecast foremost requires a good track forecast during Morakot’s landfall. Given a good track forecast, interaction of the typhoon circulation with complex topography in southern Taiwan plays a dominant role in producing the observed heavy rainfalls. The terrain slope, strength of the horizontal winds, and mid–lower-tropospheric moisture content in the southwesterly upslope flow are the primary factors that determine the rainfall location and intensity, as elucidated by the idealized one-dimensional precipitation-rate forecast model. The typhoon circulation and the southwesterly monsoon flow transport abundant moisture into southern Taiwan, which produces the heavy rainfall through intera...
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