Environmental regulations as industrial policy: Vehicle emission standards and automotive industry performance
Environmental regulations as industrial policy: Vehicle emission standards and automotive industry performance
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作为产业政策的环境法规：汽车排放标准和汽车行业绩效
DOI：
10.1016/j.envsci.2022.01.015
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
K. Nam
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xin Li;K. Nam
在这篇文章中，我们使用涵盖2000年至2018年19年间的42个国家的面板数据集，检验了车辆排放标准与当地汽车行业表现之间的潜在因果关系。我们的面板Logit分析表明，拥有相当规模的本地汽车产业会降低采用严格汽车排放标准的机会，而汽车外商直接投资存量会增加这种机会。这一发现表明，汽车排放标准的主要动机可能并不纯粹是环境因素。我们的后续格兰杰因果检验表明，这种非环境动机实际上已经转化为实际的行业促进结果。经合组织成员国更严格的排放标准往往会在3年后促进当地汽车产量和国际车辆出口，而这种因果联系仅限于非经合组织面板的高端市场出口。拥有庞大国内市场和/或本土品牌汽车制造商的汽车FDI东道国也存在类似的因果联系，但在这种情况下，只有在短期负面冲击之后，才会出现显著的长期行业促进效应。这些结果表明，通过提前/及时地在当地采用更清洁的技术，长期生产率的提高可以部分抵消监管导致的短期效率损失。
In this paper, we examine a potential causal link between vehicle emission standards and local automotive industry performance, using a 42-country panel data set covering a 19-year period between 2000 and 2018. Our panel logit analysis shows that having a sizeable local automotive industry decreases the chance of adopting stringent vehicle emission standards, while the stock of automotive FDI increases the chance. This finding suggests that the primary motivations for vehicle emission standards may not be purely environmental. Our follow-up Granger causality test demonstrates that such non-environmental motivations have in fact translated into an actual industry-promotion outcome. Stricter emission standards in OECD member countries tend to promote local automotive output and international vehicle export with a 3-year time lag, while this causal link is limited to up-market exports for non-OECD panels. Automotive FDI hosts with large domestic markets and/or local-brand automakers also present a similar causal link, but in this case significant long-term industry-promotion effects appear only after a short-term negative shock. These results suggest that a regulation-induced short-term efficiency loss may be partly offset by a long-term productivity gain through advance/timely local adoption of cleaner technologies.