How Does the Benefit Effect Vary as Unemployment Spells Lengthen
How Does the Benefit Effect Vary as Unemployment Spells Lengthen
复制标题
随着失业时间的延长，福利效果如何变化
DOI：
10.1002/jae.3950080405
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发表时间：
1993
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
M. Stewart
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
W. Narendranathan;M. Stewart
摘要本文研究了失业时收入对个人离开失业的概率的影响如何随着个人失业时间的长短而变化。我们研究这个问题的背景下，各种替代计量经济学模型。我们将具有无限制基线风险的比例风险模型扩展到解释变量的子集具有无限制效应的模型，并考虑了可以作为一系列二进制响应模型估计的模型。对于所分析的英国失业男性样本，拒绝了比例风险限制，在二进制序列框架中，基于对称分布的Logit和Probit模型占主导地位。（在可能性方面）通过比例风险公式的扩展隐含的极值形式模型。Logit模型的持续时间依赖的灵活形式，也包括未观察到的异质性，在一个灵活的方式估计。所有公式的结果表明，随着时间的延长，失业收入的影响迅速下降，对长期失业者没有显著影响。允许忽略异质性的首选规格表明约5个月后无显著影响，这一结果对于纳入或排除以前的劳动力市场经验变量以及混合分布的选择是稳健的。
SUMMARY This paper investigates how the effect of income while unemployed on the probability of an individual leaving unemployment varies with the length of time that the individual has been unemployed. We examine this question in the context of a variety of alternative econometric models. We extend the Proportional Hazards model with unrestricted baseline hazard to one in which there are unrestricted effects of a subset of the explanatory variables and also consider models that can be estimated as series of binary response models The proportional hazard restrictions are rejected for the sample of British unemployed men analysed and in the binary sequence framework Logit and Probit models based on symmetric distributions dominate (in likelihood terms) the Extreme Value form model implied by extension of the Proportional Hazards formulation. Logit models with a flexible form for the duration dependence which also incorporate unobserved heterogeneity in a flexible way are estimated. The results for all formulations indicate a rapidly declining effect of unemployment income as a spell lengthens, with no significant effect for the long-term unemployed. The preferred specifications which allow for omitted heterogeneity indicate no significant effect after about 5 months, and this result is robust to the inclusion or exclusion of previous labour-market experience variables and to the choice of mixing distribution.
DOI：
--
发表时间：
1972
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
D. Cox
通讯作者：
D. Cox