Seasonal Influenza Activity in Hong Kong and its Association With Meteorological Variations
Seasonal Influenza Activity in Hong Kong and its Association With Meteorological Variations
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DOI：
10.1002/jmv.21551
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发表时间：
2009-10-01
影响因子：
12.7
通讯作者：
Sung, Joseph J. Y.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chan, Paul K. S.;Mok, H. Y.;Sung, Joseph J. Y.
流感季节在温带地区持续出现，但在热带/亚热带地区变化更大。这种变异的决定因素仍然知之甚少。这项研究记录了香港10年来流感的活动情况，考察了它与温度和相对湿度变化的关系。这两种流感与气象变化表现出不同的相关性。甲型流感在大多数年份有两个季节高峰，分别出现在冬春季和夏季。B型流感呈现明显的冬春季高峰，但其夏季月份的活动更具变数。在寒冷和潮湿的条件下，甲型流感和乙型流感的活动都较高。相反，炎热和潮湿的条件与甲型流感的活性较高有关，但与乙型流感的活动只有温和的、不太一致的增加有关。观察到甲型流感夏季高峰的幅度增加，但不是乙型流感。假设气温上升2摄氏度，12-4月甲型流感的有利天数比例将从78%下降到57%，但5-11月将从58%增加到71%；12-4月对乙型流感的影响相似(从83%下降到62%)，但5-11月变化不大(从17%下降到18%)。每年出现两个季节性流感高峰期，突出表明有必要评估疫苗接种提供的保护性免疫的持续时间。有必要进一步研究气候变化和全球变暖对流感活动的影响。J.Med.维罗尔。81：1797-1806,2009。(C)2009年Wiley-Liss，Inc.
Influenza seasons appear consistently in the temperate regions, but are more variable in tropical/subtropical regions. The determinant for such variation remains poorly understood. This study documented the activity of influenza over a 10-year period in Hong Kong; examining its association with changes in temperature and relative humidity. The two types of influenza exhibited different correlations with meteorological variations. Influenza A showed two seasonal peaks occurring respectively in winter/spring and summer months in most years. Influenza B showed a clear winter/spring peak, but its activity during summer months was more variable. Cold and humid conditions were associated with a higher activity of both influenza A and B. In contrast, hot and humid conditions were associated with a higher activity of influenza A, but were associated with only a moderate, less consistent increase in the activity of influenza B. A trend of increase in the magnitude of summer peaks of influenza A, but not influenza B, was observed. A hypothetical 2 degrees C rise in temperature would decrease the proportion of favorable days for influenza A in December-April from 78% to 57%, but an increase from 58% to 71% in May-November; with a similar effect (from 83% to 62%) for influenza B during December-April, but a modest change (from 17% to 18%) during May-November. The presence of two seasonal peaks of influenza annually emphasizes the need to evaluate the duration of protective immunity offered by vaccination. Further study on the effects of climate change and global warming on the activity of influenza is warranted. J. Med. Virol. 81:1797-1806, 2009. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.