Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations
Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations
复制标题
货币政策沟通及其对居民通胀预期的影响
DOI：
10.1086/718982
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发表时间：
2022-06-01
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Weber, Michael
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Coibion, Olivier;Gorodnichenko, Yuriy;Weber, Michael
我们在一项随机对照试验中研究了不同形式的沟通如何影响通胀预期，该试验使用了近20，000名美国人。我们得出个人的通货膨胀预期，然后提供八种不同形式的通货膨胀信息。阅读实际的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）声明对预期的平均影响与仅仅被告知联邦的通胀目标大致相同。阅读有关最近FOMC会议的新闻文章，会导致预测修正值减少一半。通货膨胀预期的这种外生变化对扫描和调查数据中报告的家庭支出产生了后续影响。
We study how different forms of communication influence inflation expectations in a randomized controlled trial using nearly 20,000 US individuals. We elicit individuals' inflation expectations and then provide eight different forms of information regarding inflation. Reading the actual Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement has about the same average effect on expectations as simply being told about the Federal Reserve's inflation target. Reading news articles about the most recent FOMC meetings results in a forecast revision that is smaller by half. This exogenous variation in inflation expectations has subsequent effects on household spending reported in scanner and survey data.