A global synthesis of animal phenological responses to climate change
A global synthesis of animal phenological responses to climate change
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-018-0067-3
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发表时间：
2018-03-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Rohr, Jason R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cohen, Jeremy M.;Lajeunesse, Marc J.;Rohr, Jason R.
物候的变化已经导致迁徙和繁殖的时间被打乱，相互作用的物种之间也不同步(1-5)。最近的综合研究得出结论，营养水平(1)、纬度(6)和如何测量物候反应(7)是确定气候变化的物候反应强度的关键。然而，研究人员仍然缺乏一个全面的框架来预测全球和不同类群对气候变化的反应。在这里，我们综合了来自地球各地的数百种已发表的动物物候时间序列，以表明温度主要推动中纬度的物候反应，而降水在较低纬度变得重要，可能反映了推动每个地区季节性的因素。系统发育和身体大小与物候变化的强度有关，这表明相互作用的物种之间出现了不同身体大小的异步性，如宿主和寄生虫，捕食者和猎物。最后，尽管有许多令人信服的生物学解释来解释春季物候延迟，但一些延迟的例子与较短的年度记录有关，容易出现抽样错误。我们的发现为生物学家提供了关于哪些气候变量和生物特征驱动物候变化的预测。
Shifts in phenology are already resulting in disruptions to the timing of migration and breeding, and asynchronies between interacting species(1-5). Recent syntheses have concluded that trophic level(1), latitude(6) and how phenological responses are measured(7) are key to determining the strength of phenological responses to climate change. However, researchers still lack a comprehensive framework that can predict responses to climate change globally and across diverse taxa. Here, we synthesize hundreds of published time series of animal phenology from across the planet to show that temperature primarily drives phenological responses at mid-latitudes, with precipitation becoming important at lower latitudes, probably reflecting factors that drive seasonality in each region. Phylogeny and body size are associated with the strength of phenological shifts, suggesting emerging asynchronies between interacting species that differ in body size, such as hosts and parasites and predators and prey. Finally, although there are many compelling biological explanations for spring phenological delays, some examples of delays are associated with short annual records that are prone to sampling error. Our findings arm biologists with predictions concerning which climatic variables and organismal traits drive phenological shifts.