Statistical assessments of anthropogenic and natural global climate forcing. An update
Statistical assessments of anthropogenic and natural global climate forcing. An update
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人为和自然全球气候强迫的统计评估。
DOI：
10.1127/0941-2948/2010/0421
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发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
1.2
通讯作者：
S. Brinckmann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Schönwiese;S. Brinckmann
为了实现之前的论文，我们分别使用多元线性回归（MLR）和非线性神经网络（NN）对1860-2008年观测到的全球平均地表气温序列中可以检测到的人为和自然方差或信号进行了统计分析。所考虑的强迫因子包括温室气体（GHG）、对流层硫酸盐气溶胶（SUL）、太阳活动、火山活动和ENSO（厄尔尼诺/南方涛动）。因此，与MLR的80%相比，NN的最大总解释方差达到88%。相关的人为神经网络信号为温室气体导致的0.9-1.5 K升温，SUL导致的0.2-0.5 K降温以及0.7-0.9 K升温的（GHG+SUL）综合人为效应。自然信号的大小大约为0.2 K。移动MLR分析表明，近几十年来，太阳信号系统地减少，而温室气体信号增加，成为气候变率的主导因子。一些测试程序处理结果的置信度和信号的灵敏度。
In actualization of earlier papers we present a statistical analysis of anthropogenic and natural variance or signals, respectively, which can be detected in the observed global mean surface air temperature series 1860-2008 using multiple linear regression (MLR) and non-linear neural networks (NN). The forcing factors considered are greenhouse gases (GHG), tropospheric sulphate aerosols (SUL), solar activity, volcanism and ENSO (El Nino /southern oscillation). Thereby, a maximum total of explained variance of 88 % is reached by NN compared to 80 % by MLR. The related anthropogenic NN signals are 0.9-1.5 K warming due to GHG, 0.2-0.5 K cooling due to SUL and a combined (GHG+SUL) anthropogenic effect of 0.7-0.9 K warming. The natural signals have a magnitude of roughly 0.2 K. Moving MLR analysis shows that within recent decades the solar signal systematically decreased whereas the GHG signal increased to become a dominant factor of climate variability. Some test procedures address the confidence of the results and the sensitivity of the signals.