Sources of multi-decadal variability in Arctic sea ice extent
Sources of multi-decadal variability in Arctic sea ice extent
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034011
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发表时间：
2012-07-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Abe-Ouchi, A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Day, J. J.;Hargreaves, J. C.;Abe-Ouchi, A.
9月份观测到的海冰面积急剧减少在科学文献中得到了广泛的讨论。虽然第三次耦合模式相互比较项目(CMIP3)的观测数据和集合成员之间存在定性的一致，但令人关注的是，观测到的趋势(1979-2010年)没有被任何集合成员捕捉到。这种差异的潜在来源包括：观测的不确定性、物理模型的局限性和强烈的自然气候变异性。后者受到的关注较少，很难利用相对较短的观测海冰记录进行评估。本文利用5个CMIP3气候模式的多个百年前工业控制模拟，研究了北极涛动(AO)、大西洋数十年振荡(AMO)和大西洋经向翻转环流(AMOC)在年代际海冰变化中的作用。此外，我们使用这些模型来确定这些变化源在卫星观测时代(1979-2010年)和延长观测记录(1953-2010年)期间对SIE的影响。在模型中，几乎没有证据表明AO和SIE之间存在关系。然而，我们发现，在所考虑的所有模型中，AMO和AMOC指数都与SIE显著相关。利用模型得出的敏感性统计数据，假设线性关系，我们将9月SIE(1979-2010年)每十年下降10.1%的0.5%-3.1%归因于AMO驱动的变异性。
The observed dramatic decrease in September sea ice extent (SIE) has been widely discussed in the scientific literature. Though there is qualitative agreement between observations and ensemble members of the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), it is concerning that the observed trend (1979-2010) is not captured by any ensemble member. The potential sources of this discrepancy include: observational uncertainty, physical model limitations and vigorous natural climate variability. The latter has received less attention and is difficult to assess using the relatively short observational sea ice records. In this study multi-centennial pre-industrial control simulations with five CMIP3 climate models are used to investigate the role that the Arctic oscillation (AO), the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) play in decadal sea ice variability. Further, we use the models to determine the impact that these sources of variability have had on SIE over both the era of satellite observation (1979-2010) and an extended observational record (1953-2010). There is little evidence of a relationship between the AO and SIE in the models. However, we find that both the AMO and AMOC indices are significantly correlated with SIE in all the models considered. Using sensitivity statistics derived from the models, assuming a linear relationship, we attribute 0.5-3.1%/decade of the 10.1%/decade decline in September SIE (1979-2010) to AMO driven variability.