Consequences of enduring low fertility - a German case study ; demographic projections and implications for different policy fields
Consequences of enduring low fertility - a German case study ; demographic projections and implications for different policy fields
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忍受低生育率的后果——德国案例研究；
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发表时间：
2015
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通讯作者：
M. Bujard
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作者：
M. Bujard
德国的起源是：Bd。40（2015）：Ausgewahlte deutsche Beitrage.与世界上所有其他国家相比，德国成为“低生育率国家”的时间更长：40年来总和生育率一直低于1.5。德国是第一个经历这一发展的国家，通过对这一案例的研究，可以分析出生率持续下降的后果。在德国，低生育率在政治和科学领域也是一个越来越大的问题，特别是因为它对几个政策领域的广泛影响已经显而易见。然而，无论是在其严重程度方面，还是在老龄化或人口下降是否是更严重的问题方面，对后果的评估都有很大的不同。本文将人口统计学分析与养老金、医疗、经济、劳动力市场、文化、欧盟、国际关系和政党制度等不同政策领域的后果评估相结合，对这两个过程进行区分，所有这些政策领域的后果都是严重的，部分是矛盾的，但总体上是负面的。这些后果的发生以及如何处理这些后果的不同政策选择在政策领域之间有很大差异。老龄化是一个比萎缩更严重的问题，因为到2040年将发生的社会保障体系中年龄结构的严重变化适用于大多数德国人，是不可避免的。另一方面，人口下降仍然可以从人口统计学上避免，不会对所有居民产生负面影响。关于人口减少的后果，必须区分个人和国家的观点。由于国际影响力和实力的下降，特别是在欧洲联盟内，对国家的影响是相当消极的。研究还表明，如果采取适当的政治行动，长期低生育率的长期后果不一定对政治竞争、文化、劳动力市场和经济产生负面影响。分析还确定了未来可能的人口和政治参数。因此，这一案例研究对其他低生育率国家具有相关性，这些国家今后将面临类似的人口变化过程。
Der Originalbeitrag in deutscher Sprache ist verfugbar unter: Bd. 40 (2015): Ausgewahlte deutsche Beitrage.Compared to all other countries in the world, Germany has been a “low-fertility country” for a longer period: the total fertility rate has been below 1.5 for four decades. Being the first to experience this development, a case study of Germany allows analysing the consequences of an enduring birth decline. In Germany, low fertility is also an increasingly big issue in politics as well as science, especially due to its extensive consequences on several policy fields that already become visible. However, the assessment of the consequences differs tremendously when it comes either to its intensity or to the question whether ageing or rather population decline is the more severe problem. Differentiated by these two processes, this article combines demographic analysis with the assessment of the consequences for different policy fields such as pensions, health, the economy, the labour market, culture, the EU, international relations and the party system.For all these policy fields, the consequences are serious, and partly ambivalent but overall negative. The occurrence of the consequences and the different policy options how to deal with these consequences differ considerably between the policy fields. Ageing is a more severe problem than shrinking, because the severe changes in the age structure in the social security system that will take place until 2040 apply to most Germans and are inevitable. On the other hand, the population decline can still be avoided demographically and does not affect all inhabitants negatively. Regarding the consequences of a declining population, one has to differentiate between an individual and a national perspective. National consequences are rather negative due to a decline of international influence and power, especially within the European Union. The study also demonstrates that the long-term consequences of enduring low fertility are not necessarily negative for political competition, the culture, the labour market and the economy, if appropriate political action is taken. The analysis also identifies possible future demographic and political parameters. Thus, this case study is relevant for other low-fertility countries, which will have to face similar demographic processes in the future.