Variation of extreme drought and flood in North China revealed by document-based seasonal precipitation reconstruction for the past 300 years
Variation of extreme drought and flood in North China revealed by document-based seasonal precipitation reconstruction for the past 300 years
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基于文献的季节降水重建揭示近300年来华北地区极端旱涝变化
DOI：
10.5194/cp-14-1135-2018
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发表时间：
2018-08
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Hao Zhixin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zheng Jingyun;Yu Yingzhuo;Zhang Xuezhen;Hao Zhixin
利用一个独特的历史档案，玉雪坟村，17个地点的季节降水重建，极端干旱和洪水的年代际变化（即，1951 - 2000年发生概率小于10%的事件），考虑各站点旱涝发生概率和空间覆盖（即，的百分比）。然后，极端干旱和洪水与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动的可能联系（即，厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜）现象和大规模火山爆发的问题进行了讨论。结果表明，1736 ~ 2000年华北地区共发生29次极端干旱和28次极端洪涝。在这些极端干旱（洪水）事件中，大部分站点四季降水量明显减少（增加），尤其是夏秋两季。而在1902年和1981年的干旱年份，降水量仅在夏季略有减少，而在其他三个季节都明显减少。在1794、1823、1867、1872和1961年等几个极端洪水年中，也存在不同站点不同季节的降水异常。18世纪70 - 80年代、19世纪70年代、20世纪00 - 30年代和80 - 90年代极端干旱发生频率较高（2次或2次以上），其中20世纪00年代和20世纪20年代极端干旱发生频率最高（3次）。18世纪70年代、90年代、20年代、80年代、1910年代和50 - 60年代发生了较为频繁的特大洪水，其中18世纪90年代和80年代发生次数最多（4次）。就极端干旱和洪水的总数而言，18世纪70年代、18世纪90年代、19世纪70年代至80年代、1900年代至30年代和1960年代较为频繁，18世纪90年代发生频率最高（5次）。当厄尔尼诺发生在当年或前一年时，极端干旱的概率更高。然而，没有发现极端洪水的发生与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动事件之间，或极端干旱/洪水的发生与大规模火山爆发之间有重大联系。
Using a 17-site seasonal precipitation reconstruction from a unique historical archive, Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun, the decadal variations of extreme droughts and floods (i.e., the event with occurrence probability of less than 10 % from 1951 to 2000) in North China were investigated, by considering both the probabilities of droughts/floods occurrence in each site and spatial coverage (i.e., percentage of sites). Then, the possible linkages of extreme droughts and floods with ENSO (i.e., El Niño and La Niña) episodes and large volcanic eruptions were discussed. The results show that there were 29 extreme droughts and 28 extreme floods in North China from 1736 to 2000. For most of these extreme drought (flood) events, precipitation decreased (increased) evidently at most of the sites for the four seasons, especially for summer and autumn. But in drought years of 1902 and 1981, precipitation only decreased in summer slightly, while it decreased evidently in the other three seasons. Similarly, the precipitation anomalies for different seasons at different sites also existed in several extreme flood years, such as 1794, 1823, 1867, 1872 and 1961. Extreme droughts occurred more frequently (2 or more events) during the 1770s–1780s, 1870s, 1900s–1930s and 1980s–1990s, among which the most frequent (3 events) occurred in the 1900s and the 1920s. More frequent extreme floods occurred in the 1770s, 1790s, 1820s, 1880s, 1910s and 1950s–1960s, among which the most frequent (4 events) occurred in the 1790s and 1880s. For the total of extreme droughts and floods, they were more frequent in the 1770s, 1790s, 1870s–1880s, 1900s–1930s and 1960s, and the highest frequency (5 events) occurred in the 1790s. A higher probability of extreme drought was found when El Niño occurred in the current year or the previous year. However, no significant connections were found between the occurrences of extreme floods and ENSO episodes, or the occurrences of extreme droughts/floods and large volcanic eruptions.
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影响因子：
--
作者：
R. Lu
通讯作者：
R. Lu
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Ye Yu
通讯作者：
Ye Yu
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Li, Jinbao;Xie, Shang-Ping;Zheng, Xiao-Tong
通讯作者：
Zheng, Xiao-Tong
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2005
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
Zhang;De'er
通讯作者：
Zhang;De'er
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Song, Fengfei;Zhou, Tianjun
通讯作者：
Zhou, Tianjun